49ers Now 7-Point Dogs at Seattle Without Kittle
San Francisco faces Seattle in Divisional Round without George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and half their roster. Can Brock Purdy pull off another miracle?
By Sharp Money Mike
The football gods have absolutely zero chill when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers. After somehow beating the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles 23-19 on Sunday, the 49ers watched All-Pro tight end George Kittle tear his Achilles mid-game. Now they head to Seattle as 7-point underdogs with a roster that looks more like a MASH unit than an NFL team.
The Quick Hit
- What happened: Kittle suffered a torn Achilles in the second quarter against Philly, 9-12 months recovery expected
- The damage: 49ers opened +6.5 at Seattle, now +7 with the total dropping from 47.5 to 45.5
- Why you should care: San Francisco is missing Kittle, Bosa, Warner, Aiyuk, Pearsall, and about half their Pro Bowlers
- The move: The total is where the value is—under 45.5 looks solid against Seattle's stifling defense
The Injury Carnage
Let's run through the 49ers' casualty list because it's genuinely absurd:
Out for the season: George Kittle (Achilles), Nick Bosa (knee), Fred Warner (ankle), Brandon Aiyuk (knee), Ricky Pearsall (various)
That's a tight end who was arguably the best blocking TE in the league, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, an All-Pro linebacker, and two starting receivers. The 49ers have basically been playing the entire second half of the season with a JV roster and somehow made it to the Divisional Round.
Kyle Shanahan confirmed the Kittle diagnosis postgame: "The trainers knew before the cart came out. They got word to me in the headset." Kittle posted on Instagram saying "Football sucks sometimes. But I love it. Heartbroken but have felt so much love."
At 32, this injury puts a serious question mark on Kittle's future. Achilles tears are career-altering for everyone, but especially for a tight end whose game relies on physicality.
Seattle's Been Waiting
The Seahawks haven't exactly been sitting around feeling sorry for San Francisco. They're riding a 7-game win streak and they beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the NFC's top seed. That game wasn't close.
Seattle's defense has allowed the lowest EPA per carry in the NFL. They've surrendered just 3.7 yards per rush attempt and only 9 rushing touchdowns—second-fewest in the league. The pass defense ranks eighth in EPA per dropback with 47 sacks and 18 interceptions.
The Seahawks are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games. They're built to win in January.
Can Purdy Do It Again?
Here's the thing about Brock Purdy—every time you count him out, he finds a way. The 49ers went into Philly and beat the defending champs despite losing Kittle mid-game. Purdy finished with 259 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning drive to Christian McCaffrey.
But asking Purdy to do that two weeks in a row against an even better defense? That's a lot. The Wild Card Weekend showed us that anything can happen in the playoffs, but San Francisco's margin for error is basically zero at this point.
The Betting Angles
The 49ers are 8-2 ATS on the road this season, which is remarkable given their injuries. But Seattle at home is a different beast. The total dropping from 47.5 to 45.5 suggests sharp money is on the under—both teams play physical, run-first football and Seattle's defense can smother anyone.
Seven points in a rivalry game feels like a lot. These teams know each other. But the talent gap right now is enormous, and Seattle has home-field advantage plus a bye week of rest.
The Bottom Line
The 49ers' season has been a testament to coaching and depth, but even the best-coached team runs out of bullets eventually. Seattle is healthy, rested, and playing their best football of the year. Unless Purdy goes supernova, this one probably gets ugly. Take the under and hope for a competitive first half.