New Year's Eve is tomorrow, but the party starts tonight in San Antonio.

The Valero Alamo Bowl pits USC against TCU in a matchup that actually has some juice. Both teams finished with respectable records, both have competent offenses, and neither is mailing it in with a roster full of opt-outs.

Kickoff is 9 PM ET on ESPN. Let's break down the numbers.

The Quick Hit

• Spread: USC -6.5 (opened -5.5)
• Total: 55.5 (opened 58.5)
• Moneyline: USC -238 / TCU +195
• Implied score: Trojans 31, Horned Frogs 24

The Line Movement Story

USC opened as 5.5-point favorites and has ticked up to -6.5. That's a point of movement toward the Trojans, suggesting either sharp action on USC or public money piling on the bigger brand.

The total, meanwhile, has dropped three points from 58.5 to 55.5. Books expect a slightly lower-scoring affair than initially projected. Whether that's injury-related or just a market correction remains to be seen.

The Case for USC

The Trojans have the more explosive offense. Miller Moss has been solid under center, and USC's skill position players can hurt you in multiple ways. When they're clicking, this offense can put up points in bunches.

USC also has the edge in overall talent. Even in a down year by their standards, the Trojans still recruit at an elite level, and that talent advantage should show up on the field.

The Trojans have the stronger path to covering — score early, build a lead, and force TCU to play from behind.

The Case for TCU

The Horned Frogs are no pushover. They finished 9-3 in the regular season with wins over Kansas and Texas Tech. Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for over 3,200 yards and can move the ball through the air.

TCU also plays with an edge. Sonny Dykes has built a program that competes, and the Horned Frogs won't be intimidated by the USC mystique. If they can control the pace and limit explosive plays, they're live to keep this close.

Plus, getting nearly a touchdown as an underdog gives you margin for error. TCU doesn't have to win — they just need to lose by less than a touchdown.

The Total

The 55.5 number suggests a combined score in the mid-50s. Both offenses can move the ball, but the three-point drop from the opener hints that books are expecting some defensive resistance.

In bowl games, unders tend to cash at a higher rate. Teams have more time to prepare, defenses get a full month to scheme, and offenses sometimes look rusty after the layoff. If you're looking for a lean, the under isn't a bad spot.

The Bottom Line

USC -6.5 feels about right. The Trojans have more talent and the better offense, but TCU is well-coached and capable of hanging around. If you're betting this game, you're probably picking your poison between a slightly inflated favorite and a solid underdog getting nearly a touchdown.

We'd lean USC to win, but the cover is going to be tight. This feels like a 28-24 or 31-27 kind of game — exciting to watch, stressful to have action on.

Good luck, degenerates.