Australian Open: Sinner -110, Alcaraz Chasing History
The defending champ goes for three straight Melbourne titles while Carlos Alcaraz pursues the career Grand Slam. Tennis betting is back.
By Sharp Money Mike
The first Grand Slam of the year is underway in Melbourne, and the betting market has a clear hierarchy. Jannik Sinner enters as the -110 favorite looking for his third consecutive Australian Open title, while Carlos Alcaraz stalks at +160 hoping to complete the career Grand Slam.
The Quick Hit
- Tournament: Australian Open 2026, Melbourne Park
- Dates: January 19 - February 1
- Men's Favorite: Jannik Sinner (-110)
- Women's Favorite: Aryna Sabalenka (+200)
- Why you should care: Sinner vs Alcaraz could meet in a historic final
- The move: Alcaraz at +160 offers value if you believe he's ready
The Men's Market
Sinner has owned hard-court majors over the past two years. He's won three of the last four hard-court Grand Slams (both Australian Opens plus a US Open) and looks unstoppable on this surface.
The 24-year-old Italian is the obvious choice. He's defending champion, he's in peak form, and Melbourne suits his game. The problem? -110 doesn't offer much value if he's truly 55% to win.
Alcaraz at +160 is where the intrigue lies. The Spaniard has won Wimbledon and the French Open but never lifted a hard-court major trophy. If he gets past Sinner—and that's a big if—he'd become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam.
They've split the four majors the last two years, each winning two annually. Melbourne is the rubber match.
The Full Men's Odds Board
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | -110 (+110) |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +160 |
| Novak Djokovic | +1200 |
| Alexander Zverev | +1400 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +2000 |
Djokovic at +1200 is interesting for the romantics. The 38-year-old legend is chasing his 25th major title and 11th Australian Open. He had a neck scare in the lead-up but intends to play through it.
If you believe the GOAT has one more run in him, +1200 isn't crazy. But Father Time is undefeated, even against Novak.
The Women's Market
Aryna Sabalenka has reached three consecutive Australian Open finals, winning two. She's the +200 favorite despite losing to Madison Keys last year.
Her power game thrives on Melbourne's quick conditions. The Belarusian serves huge, hits hard from both wings, and has proven she can handle Grand Slam pressure.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | +200 |
| Iga Swiatek | +600 |
| Elena Rybakina | +750 |
| Coco Gauff | +1200 |
Swiatek at +600 is intriguing. The Polish star has dominated clay and won the US Open but hasn't cracked Melbourne. Completing her career Grand Slam here would cement her legacy.
Early Round Observations
Alcaraz cruised through his first-round match in straight sets, looking sharp and confident. Sinner is scheduled for Monday and should handle his opener without trouble.
The draw will matter more as the tournament progresses. If Sinner and Alcaraz end up in the same half, they'd meet in the semifinals instead of the final—something neither wants.
Value Bets to Consider
Men's Side:
- Alcaraz at +160 if you think he's due for a hard-court breakthrough
- Zverev at +1400 if you want a dark horse with big-match experience
- Djokovic at +1200 for the legacy play
Women's Side:
- Swiatek at +600 for the career Grand Slam narrative
- Gauff at +1200 as the young American star in waiting
The Bottom Line
The Australian Open delivers the tennis betting action we've been missing since the US Open. Sinner is the rightful favorite, but Alcaraz's hunger for the career Grand Slam adds drama.
On the women's side, Sabalenka is battle-tested in Melbourne and deserves her spot as favorite. But Swiatek at +600 has sneaky value.
Two weeks of Grand Slam tennis, plenty of opportunities to find edges. The Slam season is officially back.