Bears Pull Off 0.5% Win Probability Miracle, Stun Packers 22-16 in Overtime
Down 10 with under two minutes left, Chicago recovered an onside kick, scored twice, and won in OT. Packers bettors are in shambles.
By Sharp Money Mike
If you had the Packers on Saturday night, I'm going to need you to take a deep breath. Maybe sit down. Possibly pour yourself something strong.
The Chicago Bears just completed one of the most improbable comebacks in recent NFL history, rallying from a 16-6 deficit with under two minutes remaining to beat the Green Bay Packers 22-16 in overtime at Soldier Field.
According to Next Gen Stats, Chicago's win probability dropped to 0.5% before they recovered an onside kick. Zero point five percent. This was the fifth-most improbable win since Next Gen Stats started tracking in 2016.
The Quick Hit
- Final score: Bears 22, Packers 16 (OT)
- Win probability at lowest point: 0.5% for Chicago
- The deficit: Bears trailed 16-6 with 1:59 remaining
- The damage: Packers bettors got absolutely eviscerated
Let's Relive the Horror (Or Glory, Depending on Your Bet)
Here's how it unfolded:
Trailing 16-6 with less than two minutes left, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 16-12. Then came the onside kick.
Romeo Doubs — Romeo fucking Doubs — couldn't handle it. The ball bounced off him, and Chicago recovered. Suddenly, the Bears had the ball back with a chance to tie.
On fourth down with 24 seconds left, Caleb Williams found the end zone to tie the game at 16-16 and send it to overtime. The entire sequence took less than two minutes of game time.
Overtime: When It Got Even Worse
Green Bay won the coin toss and received the ball in overtime. Their chance to put this game away. But on fourth down, a botched snap exchange between the center and backup quarterback Malik Willis — who was filling in for Jordan Love after he left with a concussion — gave Chicago the ball back.
The Bears didn't waste the opportunity. Caleb Williams connected with DJ Moore for a 46-yard touchdown, and just like that, Chicago won 22-16.
The Packers Betting Angle
If you had Green Bay as a small favorite (the line was around Packers -2.5 to -3), you were counting your money with 1:59 left. The Packers had a 10-point lead. The Bears needed to score twice. An onside kick needed to work.
None of that should happen. And then all of it happened.
This is the kind of bad beat that makes you question every life decision that led you to this moment. You did everything right. You picked the right side. And then a receiver can't catch an onside kick and your quarterback fumbles a snap in overtime.
Variance is a cruel, cruel mistress.
What This Means for the NFC North
Chicago improves to 11-4 and extends their NFC North lead to a game and a half over the Packers (9-5-1). This was a massive swing in the division race, all because of the craziest two minutes of football we've seen all season.
The Bears control their destiny now. Green Bay needs help.
The Bottom Line
This game will be in "Bad Beats of the Year" compilations for decades. If you had the Packers, there's nothing you could have done differently. Sometimes the gambling gods just decide to remind you that nothing is ever truly locked.
And if you had the Bears? You just witnessed a miracle. Go buy a lottery ticket.