If you've been refreshing your sportsbook app trying to figure out which team to back in Bills-Broncos, you're not alone. This line has been more volatile than a degen's bankroll on a bad Sunday, and even the sharps can't seem to agree on who wins this thing.

The Quick Hit

• The chaos: Bills opened -1.5 at Denver, flipped to Broncos -1.5, went back to pick'em, now sits at Broncos -1
• The split: 74% of bets on Buffalo, but the line keeps moving toward Denver
• The total: 77% of the money has hammered the under at 46.5
• The situation: This is classic reverse line movement—public on one side, money on the other

The Line Has Lost Its Mind

Here's what happened. The look-ahead line for this matchup listed Buffalo as 1.5-point road favorites at Denver. Standard stuff—Josh Allen on the road against a young Broncos team. Then the Wild Card games happened, and suddenly nothing made sense anymore.

The line opened at Broncos -1.5 on Sunday night. Then it bounced to Bills -1.5 for what might have been a software glitch or a brief moment of clarity from the market. Then back to Denver -1.5 at DraftKings. By Tuesday morning at BetMGM, the Broncos were 1-point favorites. This game has been a complete seesaw.

What's wild is nearly three-quarters of the bets have been on Buffalo to cover, yet the line keeps moving toward Denver. That's your classic "sharps vs. squares" scenario—the public loves the Bills, but the smart money apparently likes what Denver's defense does at altitude.

Why the Market Can't Make Up Its Mind

Both teams have legitimate cases to make. The Broncos tied for the league's best record at 14-3, won back-to-back games to close the season, and earned the AFC's top seed with a bye. Their defense has been suffocating, and Mile High in January is no joke.

But the Bills have Josh Allen. They're 12-5, won six of their last seven, and just escaped Jacksonville with a 27-24 road win on Wild Card Sunday. Allen is playing at an MVP level, and when he's cooking, Buffalo can beat anyone.

The models are split too. Offense-first models favor the Bills. Defense-first models like the Broncos. If you're waiting for a clear signal, it might not come before Saturday's 4:30 PM ET kickoff.

The Under Is the Only Consensus

While the spread is a coin flip, bettors have reached one clear conclusion: this game is going under. A whopping 77% of the money is on Under 46.5, and honestly, that makes sense. Two good defenses, potential weather at altitude, and a game where neither team can afford to turn it over.

If you're looking for the "safe" play in this chaos, the under seems to be where the smart money agrees. But in a game this unpredictable, who knows.

The Bottom Line

This is what happens when two evenly matched teams meet in the playoffs—the market genuinely doesn't know who's better. The favorite could flip again before Saturday. If you've got a strong conviction one way or another, good for you. The rest of us will be sweating every possession and wondering why we didn't just bet the under and call it a day.