The Buffalo Bills are one of the best teams in football. They're 11-4. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate. They have home-field advantage today against the Eagles in a potential Super Bowl preview.

There's just one problem: their run defense is absolutely cooked, and Saquon Barkley is coming to town.

The Quick Hit

• Buffalo's rush D rank: 31st in defensive rush EPA
• Yards allowed per game: 144.0 rushing yards, second-worst in the NFL
• Rushing TDs allowed: 18, league-high
• Saquon's recent form: 120+ rushing yards in two of his last three games

The Numbers Are Brutal

Buffalo is allowing 5.4 yards per carry this season. That's the second-highest mark in the NFL. Running backs have been gashing this defense for months, and there's no indication anything is about to change.

The 18 rushing touchdowns allowed? That's not a typo. The Bills have given up more rushing scores than any team in football. Their front seven gets moved around. Their linebackers miss tackles. Their defensive scheme invites teams to run right at them.

And now they face the best running back in football.

Saquon Barkley is Built for This Moment

Barkley has been on an absolute tear lately. He's rushed for 120+ yards in two of his last three games. His legs are fresh. His vision is elite. And he's running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The Eagles know exactly what they have in Saquon. They're going to feed him 25+ touches today and dare Buffalo to stop it. Based on everything we've seen from the Bills' defense, they can't.

This is the nightmare matchup for Buffalo. A physical, north-south runner with breakaway speed against a defense that gets pushed around at the point of attack. If Saquon gets going early, this game could get out of hand.

Why the Spread is So Tight

Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite and the line has settled at Bills -2.5. That's remarkably tight for a home game against a team with a worse record.

The books know. They see the matchup. They know Barkley is going to get his. And they know the Eagles have been 5-0 outright as underdogs since the start of last season.

Sharp money has been on Philadelphia all week. The line movement tells you everything you need to know.

Josh Allen Can't Do Everything

Here's the thing: the Bills are going to score points. Josh Allen is too good, and their offensive weapons are too talented. Buffalo will put up 24-28 points today. That's a given.

But can their defense get enough stops? Can they force the Eagles into passing situations? Can they contain Hurts and the RPO game?

Based on the tape, the answer is probably no. The Eagles are going to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Allen off the field. That's the formula to beat Buffalo, and Philly has the personnel to execute it.

The Betting Angle

If you're betting this game, you have to account for Saquon. The Bills' defensive numbers against the run are disqualifying. You cannot lay points with a team that allows 5.4 yards per carry against a team with an elite running back.

Take the Eagles +2.5. Philly covers and possibly wins outright.

The over/under is 51.5, which feels about right. Both offenses can score, but the Eagles are going to dominate time of possession. Lean under if you're picking a side, but this one could go either way.

The Bottom Line

The Bills have a Saquon problem. Their rush defense has been a liability all season, and today they face the one running back who can single-handedly swing a game.

Buffalo is at home. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level. But none of that matters if the Eagles run for 180 yards and control the clock.

This is the most interesting matchup of Week 17. Two elite teams. One major weakness. And Saquon Barkley ready to exploit it.

Take the points.