The Los Angeles Chargers have decided Week 18 isn't worth the effort. They're sitting Justin Herbert (hand injury), they're locked into the 7-seed regardless of the outcome, and they're essentially waving the white flag against a Broncos team fighting for playoff positioning.

Denver opened as a 10-point favorite. It's climbed to 12.5. And somehow, that still feels too low.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Chargers resting Herbert, content with 7-seed, mailing in Week 18
• The damage: Broncos -12.5, total around 38, Denver ML -550
• Why you should care: LA is tanking a game with playoff implications for their opponent
• The move: Broncos -12.5 or don't touch this game at all

The Chargers' Strategy

Jim Harbaugh has made his decision: the Chargers are prioritizing health over everything else. Herbert's hand injury isn't season-ending, but why risk making it worse in a meaningless game?

From LA's perspective, this makes sense. They're in the playoffs. They know they're the 7-seed. There's no upside to playing starters hard.

From Denver's perspective, this is a gift from the football gods.

Denver's Playoff Picture

The Broncos need a win to clinch a playoff spot. They can also get in with losses by the Patriots and Jaguars, but why leave it to chance?

With Bo Nix running the offense and a defense that's been solid all season, Denver should be able to handle a Chargers team that's essentially rolling out the backups.

The AFC playoff race has been wild, with the Ravens and Steelers playing for the division title Sunday night. Denver wants no part of that chaos. A win Sunday puts them in clean.

The Line Analysis

Broncos -12.5 is a monster spread for a road team, but consider the circumstances:

• Chargers backup QB vs. Broncos playoff-caliber defense
• Denver's season is on the line
• LA players are already thinking about vacation
• The Chargers have no reason to extend drives or take risks

This is one of those rare situations where the spread should probably be higher. A 14-point line wouldn't shock anyone who's paying attention.

The Trap Concerns

Of course, there's a contrarian case. NFL players are professionals. They're going to compete even in a meaningless game. Pride is a powerful motivator.

The Chargers' defense might play hard just to prove they're not a pushover. And spreads this high are notoriously difficult to cover—all it takes is a garbage-time touchdown to kill your ticket.

But here's the counter: Justin Herbert isn't playing. The Chargers' best player, their franchise quarterback, is on the bench. That changes everything.

The Betting Angles

Broncos -12.5 (-110): Hold your nose and take Denver. The motivation gap is massive, and Herbert's absence tilts everything in the Broncos' favor.

Under 38 (-110): Without Herbert, the Chargers are going to struggle to move the ball. Denver might also play conservatively with a lead. This one stays in the 30s.

Broncos 1H -7 (-110): Denver comes out aggressive, knowing they need to punch their playoff ticket. They'll build a lead early and cruise from there.

What This Means for the Playoffs

If Denver wins, they're in the playoffs. If they somehow lose, they need help from other games. The Broncos don't want to sweat scoreboard watching.

The Chargers, meanwhile, will head into Wild Card weekend rested and healthy. Whether that's the right strategy or not, Harbaugh has made his choice.

The Bottom Line

This is as close to a gimme as you'll find in Week 18. The Broncos have everything to play for. The Chargers have literally nothing to gain.

Denver -12.5 is the play. It's a big number, but the circumstances justify it. Take the Broncos and watch them punch their ticket to the postseason.

Broncos 31, Chargers 13. Denver covers easily, books their playoff berth, and we all move on to the games that actually matter.