The top seeds are cooked. It's not a fluke anymore—it's a pattern.

Teams with first-round byes in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff are now 0-6 and losing by an average of 15.3 points. That's not bad luck. That's a structural problem.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: All four top seeds lost in the CFP quarterfinals
• The damage: Combined record of 0-6 for bye teams, average loss by 15.3 points
• Why you should care: If you've been betting top seeds, you've been lighting money on fire
• The move: Fade the bye until proven otherwise

The Body Count

Thursday's quarterfinals were a bloodbath for top seeds:

• Ohio State (2-seed): Lost to Miami 24-14 as 9.5-point favorites
• Georgia (3-seed): Lost to Ole Miss 39-34 as 6.5-point favorites
• Texas Tech (4-seed): Lost to Oregon 23-0 as 6.5-point underdogs (wait, they weren't favored but still got smoked)
• Alabama (9-seed at 1-seed Indiana): Lost 38-3 as 3-point underdogs

Indiana was the only top-4 seed that won. They're now 1-0 following byes in the expanded format, which means everyone else is 0-6.

Why Is This Happening?

The explanations are everywhere:

Rust is real. First-round teams played a competitive game two weeks ago. They worked out the kinks, found their playoff intensity, and built momentum. Bye teams had practices and scrimmages—no amount of Oklahoma drills replicates game speed.

Motivation gap. If you're Texas Tech and you just watched Oregon demolish Tennessee, you're scared. If you're Oregon and you just beat Tennessee, you're confident. Bye teams come in cold and tentative. First-round winners come in hot and hungry.

Preparation disadvantage. Bye teams didn't know their opponent until a week ago. First-round teams knew exactly who they'd face and had extra time to prepare. That matters in college football, where scheme adjustments can flip a game.

The Betting Implications

This is the biggest trend in college football betting right now, and the market hasn't adjusted.

Georgia was still a 6.5-point favorite against Ole Miss. Ohio State was 9.5 against Miami. The books haven't baked in the bye curse, which means sharp money has been printing on underdogs.

Going forward, any quarterfinal matchup featuring a bye team against a first-round winner should have the underdog getting extra consideration. The sample size is now large enough to take seriously.

But Wait—Indiana Won

The Hoosiers are the exception. They came in as the 1-seed, laid 3 points against Alabama, and won by 35.

Why did they survive while everyone else got killed?

Indiana had the best team in the country. They went 14-0 with a Heisman-winning quarterback and a defense that suffocated everyone they played. They weren't just a top seed—they were a historically great team.

Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas Tech were good. Indiana was dominant. There's a difference.

What About the Semifinals?

Both semifinal matchups feature teams that played in the first round:

• Fiesta Bowl: Miami vs. Ole Miss—both won quarterfinal games
• Peach Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon—both won quarterfinal games

The bye curse is dead for the semis because there are no more bye teams left. Indiana and Oregon are the only survivors from the top four, and now they're facing battle-tested opponents who've won two playoff games already.

If you're looking for an edge in the semifinal betting, it's gone. Everyone left has earned their spot.

The Bottom Line

The expanded playoff has created a clear pattern: rest kills teams. The bye advantage everyone assumed would exist has been a liability. Top seeds come in rusty, tentative, and underprepared. First-round winners come in battle-tested and confident. If the CFP format stays the same next year, bet the first-round winners in the quarterfinals until the market adjusts. For now, the sharps are already cashing, and the public is still lighting money on fire backing top seeds.