CFP Final Four: Indiana Takes Favorite Status After Demolishing Bama 38-3
The Hoosiers just embarrassed Alabama and are now +130 to win it all. Oregon, Miami, and Ole Miss round out the semifinals. This is the chaos we ordered.
By Sharp Money Mike
Indiana just did WHAT to Alabama?
38-3. Thirty-eight to three. The Hoosiers — yes, those Hoosiers — physically dominated the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. It wasn't competitive. It wasn't close. It was a statement.
Indiana is now the betting favorite to win the national championship. We're through the looking glass, people.
The Quick Hit
- New favorite: Indiana +130
- The damage: 38-3 over Alabama in the Rose Bowl
- Remaining field: Indiana, Oregon, Miami, Ole Miss
- Title game: January 19, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
How We Got Here
Indiana (14-0) hasn't lost a game all season. They've got a Heisman-caliber QB in Fernando Mendoza, a defense loaded with first-round talent, and a head coach in Curt Cignetti who looks like he's speedrunning the Saban career arc.
Ohio State lost to Miami in the other semifinal. With the Buckeyes eliminated, the Hoosiers ascended to the top of the odds board.
The Semifinal Matchups
Peach Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon
These teams already played in October. Indiana won 30-20 at Oregon. The Hoosiers' defensive line was the difference — they held Oregon to 81 rushing yards and 267 total yards.
Oregon will want revenge. Indiana already has proof they can win.
Current spread: Indiana -3.5 (opening line)
Sugar Bowl: Miami vs. Ole Miss
Miami took down Ohio State to reach this point. The Hurricanes are rolling with momentum and confidence.
Ole Miss is the only team in the final four that hasn't beaten a top-10 opponent in the playoff yet. They'll need to change that against Miami.
Current spread: Miami -1.5 (opening line)
The Odds Update
| Team | Championship Odds |
|---|---|
| Indiana | +130 |
| Oregon | +350 |
| Miami | +350 |
| Ole Miss | +800 |
Indiana's dominance over Alabama shifted everything. They were +275 before the Rose Bowl. Now they're the clear favorite.
The Books' Nightmare Scenario
According to BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee:
"Futures-wise, we're looking to see an Indiana-Ole Miss national title game. Miami and Oregon are liabilities for the book."
If you've got Miami or Oregon futures, you're looking at a nice payday if they advance. The public loaded up on those teams early, and now the books are sweating.
Indiana's Path
Beat Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Beat the winner of Miami-Ole Miss in the title game. Complete the undefeated season.
Cignetti already beat Oregon once. He already demolished Alabama. There's no team left on the schedule that should scare Indiana.
The question is whether perfection continues or whether someone finally figures them out.
The Bottom Line
Indiana went from "nice story" to "legitimate national champion" in about three hours of game time.
The Hoosiers at +130 aren't giving you lottery ticket odds anymore. They're the favorite because they've earned it. 38-3 over Alabama earns it.
If you want value, look at Ole Miss at +800. They're the long shot in a field of four. If they upset Miami and get hot, that 8-1 payout is live.
But honestly? Indiana looks like the best team in college football. And that's a sentence nobody expected to write this season.
What a time to be alive.