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Sports BettingMonday, December 22, 20253 min read

CFP First Round Carnage: Miami Survives 10-3 Defensive Slugfest, Ole Miss and Oregon Cruise

Four first-round games. Four favorites advancing. But the margins were wilder than the spreads suggested. Here's your betting recap.

By Sharp Money Mike

Est. 2019
THE RAGING DEGENERATE
Your Daily Dose of Gambling News
Sports Betting
CFP First Round Carnage: Miami Survives 10-3 Defensive Slugfest, Ole Miss and Oregon Cruise
Four first-round games. Four favorites advancing. But the margins were wilder than the spreads suggested. Here's your betting recap.
By Sharp Money Mike
ragingdegenerate.com
#collegefootball #CFP #betting #Miami #DegenLife #GamblingNews

The first round of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is in the books, and if you bet the favorites, congratulations — you're probably in the green. But some of these games were way uglier than the final scores suggest.

Let's break down what happened and what it means for the quarterfinals.

The Quick Hit

  • Advancing: Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon, Alabama (Bama beat Oklahoma on Friday)
  • Eliminated: Texas A&M, Tulane, James Madison, Oklahoma
  • Biggest cover: Ole Miss -16.5 destroyed Tulane
  • Ugliest game: Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 — that total was set at 48.5

Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 (UNDER 48.5)

Holy shit, what a defensive battle. The over/under was set at 48.5 points combined. These two teams combined for 13.

If you had the under, you were eating steak. If you had the over, you were watching a game that made the 1985 Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf.

Miami was favored by 3 points and won by 7, so they covered comfortably. But nobody expected this game to look like a Big Ten game from 1987.

The winning play: Malachi Toney's rushing touchdown with 1:44 remaining broke a 3-3 tie. Bryce Fitzgerald sealed it with an interception in the end zone with less than 30 seconds left.

Ole Miss Dominates Tulane 41-10 (COVER -16.5)

Now THIS is what we expected from a playoff game. Ole Miss was laying 16.5 points against Tulane, and they absolutely destroyed the Green Wave.

The Rebels jumped out to a 41-3 lead before Tulane added a garbage-time touchdown to make it look slightly more respectable. If you took Ole Miss to cover, you were never sweating.

Oregon Handles James Madison (COVER -21)

Oregon was the biggest favorite of the first round at -21 against James Madison. The Ducks took care of business, as expected, and the spread bettors who trusted the chalk were rewarded.

JMU made some noise but ultimately couldn't compete with Oregon's talent advantage.

Quarterfinal Betting Lines

Now the fun really begins. Here's what we're looking at for the New Year's Eve/Day games:

Cotton Bowl - Miami vs Ohio State: Buckeyes opened as 10-point favorites. After watching Miami's offense produce 10 points against Texas A&M, that number might grow.

Fiesta Bowl - Indiana vs Alabama: The undefeated Hoosiers are 7-point favorites against the Tide. Alabama just beat Oklahoma, so they're coming in hot.

Sugar Bowl - Ole Miss vs Georgia: A rematch of the October game Georgia won 43-35. Bulldogs are laying 7 points.

The Bottom Line

The favorites went 4-0 in the first round, which isn't surprising — that's why they were favorites. But the margins and game scripts were all over the place.

Miami looked like they forgot how to score touchdowns. Ole Miss looked like world-beaters. And now we're heading into the quarterfinals with some very interesting matchups.

If you're betting the next round, keep an eye on that Miami offense. Ten points against Texas A&M is not exactly confidence-inspiring heading into a date with Ohio State.