The CFP National Championship is set, and it's a matchup nobody predicted at the start of the season: No. 1 Indiana versus No. 10 Miami, with the Hoosiers laying a touchdown.

Indiana opened as 7.5-point favorites at most books, with a -320 moneyline implying a 76% win probability. The total opened at 48.5. And Miami gets to play in their own stadium.

Let's break down the betting angles for the biggest game of the college football season.

The Quick Hit

• When: Monday, January 19, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami (Miami's home field)
• Opening line: Indiana -7.5
• Moneyline: Indiana -320, Miami +260
• Total: 48.5

Indiana's Case

The Hoosiers have been historically dominant. They're 15-0, one win from becoming the first FBS team to win 16 games in a season. They're the only team in the country ranked top three on both offense and defense by SP+.

Their playoff run:

• Beat Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal
• Beat Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl semifinal

That's a combined 94-25 against two quality opponents. They've covered every spread in the playoffs by double digits.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has been unstoppable. Five touchdown passes against Oregon. A perfectly orchestrated offense. A defense that creates turnovers and turns them into points.

This Indiana team might be the most complete unit in modern college football history.

Miami's Case

The Hurricanes are the Chaos Theory champions. They've won three playoff games by a combined 18 points:

• Beat Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round
• Beat Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl
• Beat Ole Miss 31-27 in the Fiesta Bowl (Carson Beck TD run with 18 seconds left)

They're 13-2, having lost the ACC Championship to Indiana's conference-mate Illinois. They're the 10-seed that kept finding ways to survive.

Carson Beck has been clutch in tight games. The defense has held opponents to 44 total points in three playoff games. And they get to play at home — the first team in CFP/BCS history to play the national championship in their own stadium.

The Betting Angles

For Indiana -7.5:

• They've covered every playoff spread by 12+ points
• SP+ has them as the most complete team in the country
• Mendoza is playing the best football of anyone in America
• They already beat Oregon twice (same opponent, bigger blowout the second time)
• Miami hasn't faced a defense this good

For Miami +7.5:

• Championship games tend to be closer than expected
• Carson Beck delivers in clutch moments
• Home field matters, even in a "neutral" title game
• Miami's defense has been elite in the playoffs
• 7.5 is a lot to lay in a title game

The Total (48.5):

• The under has hit in 9 of Miami's 15 games
• The over is 8-7 in Indiana's games
• Miami's playoff games have gone under (10, 24, 31 points scored)
• Indiana's playoff games have gone over (94 total points in 2 games)
• This screams under unless Indiana blows it open

Historical Context

Title games in the CFP era have been coin flips more often than the regular-season dominance would suggest. Great teams have looked vulnerable. Underdogs have hung around.

But have we ever seen a team as dominant as this Indiana squad? They destroyed the bye week curse by beating rested Alabama and Oregon by a combined 69 points. They have the Heisman winner. They have the best defense.

The market has them at 76% to win. That feels... low?

Sharp vs. Square

Early money has moved the line from -7 to -7.5, suggesting sharp action on Indiana. The public will probably pound Miami as the week goes on — it's their home stadium, they're the underdog, Beck is clutch.

If this line gets to Indiana -6.5 by game time, the sharps might reload. If it stays at -7.5 or moves to -8, Miami might be the value play.

The Bottom Line

Indiana is the most dominant team we've seen in years. Miami is the scrappy underdog playing at home.

The opening line says Indiana by a touchdown. The eye test says Indiana by three touchdowns. The history of championship games says weird things happen.

Take your pick:

• Indiana -7.5 if you believe your eyes
• Miami +7.5 if you believe in home field and championship chaos
• Under 48.5 if you think Miami's defense keeps this close

January 19. Hard Rock Stadium. The Hoosiers try to complete perfection. The Hurricanes try to write the ultimate underdog story.

We'll be sweating either way.