Happy New Year, degenerates. While everyone else is nursing their hangovers, we've got three College Football Playoff quarterfinal games to sweat today. After Miami's stunning upset of Ohio State last night, anything can happen. Let's break down all three matchups and find some value.

The Quick Hit

• What's happening: Three CFP quarterfinal games today—Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl
• The damage: Lines ranging from Georgia -6.5 to Indiana being a solid favorite
• Why you should care: These winners advance to the semifinals, and today's results will reshape the title picture
• The move: After last night's chaos, consider the underdogs carefully

Game 1: Orange Bowl — Oregon vs Texas Tech (12:00 PM ET)

The 5-seed Ducks meet the 4-seed Red Raiders in Miami Gardens, and Texas Tech comes in with an absurd 12-1-0 ATS record this season. When a team covers that often, you pay attention.

Oregon has the implied 57.3% win probability based on the betting lines, but Texas Tech's spread performance this year has been elite. The Red Raiders have been an underdog's dream, and while they're not getting points here, the margin is tight.

The lean: If you can find Texas Tech getting any points, that's the play. Their ATS record is no accident.

Game 2: Rose Bowl — Indiana vs Alabama (4:00 PM ET)

Indiana is the 1-seed and has a 71.3% implied win probability based on the moneyline. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in college football this season, and they're rightfully favored at home.

Alabama is Alabama, though. Nick Saban's legacy lives on in Tuscaloosa, and the Crimson Tide know how to play in big games. The public will be heavy on Indiana after their dominant season, which means there might be some value on the Tide.

The lean: Alabama as a dog in a playoff game feels dangerous to fade completely. Consider the points if you can stomach backing Bama.

Game 3: Sugar Bowl — Georgia vs Ole Miss (8:00 PM ET)

Georgia -6.5 in the SEC showdown at the Superdome. The Bulldogs have a 70.8% implied probability, and this line feels about right for a Georgia team that's been there and done that in playoff situations.

Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to keep this interesting, but Georgia's defense is a different animal in January. The Bulldogs historically show up when it matters most.

The total is set at 55.5, which feels like it could go either way. Both offenses can score, but Georgia's defense tends to clamp down in elimination games.

The lean: Georgia -6.5 is the sharpest play of the day. The Bulldogs don't lose games they're supposed to win.

Key Betting Trends

Texas Tech 12-1-0 ATS this year is the stat that keeps jumping off the page. Oregon has been solid but nothing compared to that Red Raider cover rate.

Alabama as an underdog in a playoff game has historically been dangerous territory for opponents. The Tide don't stay down for long.

Georgia in playoff elimination games is about as reliable as it gets. Kirby Smart knows how to prepare for these moments.

The Bottom Line

After Miami's shock win last night, the CFP is wide open. Today's games will set up the semifinals, and the betting public is going to be shook. Use that fear to your advantage—the books are going to see more underdog money than usual, but that doesn't mean every dog is worth backing. Georgia -6.5 feels like the lock of the day, and Texas Tech getting points would be a gift if you can find it. Let's cash some tickets to start 2026.