Two Cinderella stories and a rematch nobody saw coming. That's your College Football Playoff semifinal slate, and the betting lines are absolutely wild.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: CFP quarterfinals produced chaos—Miami upset Ohio State, Ole Miss stunned Georgia, and both top seeds got smoked
• The damage: Fiesta Bowl (Miami -2.5 vs Ole Miss), Peach Bowl (Indiana -3.5 vs Oregon)
• Why you should care: Two underdogs meeting in the Fiesta, and the Peach is a regular-season rematch
• The move: Fade the bye, ride the chaos—more below

Fiesta Bowl: Miami vs. Ole Miss (January 8)

This game has absolutely no business existing, and I mean that as a compliment to both teams.

Miami was a 9.5-point dog against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. They won outright. The Hurricanes became the first true Cinderella of the expanded playoff format, knocking off Texas A&M as a 7-seed before embarrassing the Buckeyes in one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.

Ole Miss? They had to survive one of the weirdest endings in bowl game history. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 320 yards and set up a 47-yard game-winner with six seconds left. Then Georgia's return team hit the pylon on a lateral, giving Ole Miss a safety. The Rebels had to celebrate three separate times because officials kept making them play out the final second.

Pete Golding is somehow two wins away from a national title in his second game as head coach after Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU.

The current line sits at Miami -2.5. That's a coin flip with a slight lean toward the Canes. Both teams are playing with house money at this point.

Peach Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon (January 9)

Here's where it gets interesting for the sharps.

These teams already played this season. Indiana went into Autzen Stadium and won 30-20. The Hoosiers covered as 3-point dogs. Now they're laying 3.5 at a neutral site in Atlanta.

Indiana just demolished Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner, threw three touchdowns and the defense held Bama to 193 total yards. The Hoosiers are 14-0 and looking unstoppable.

Oregon, meanwhile, posted a shutout against Texas Tech. Their defense was suffocating—four sacks, two picks, and the Red Raiders finished with nine first downs. Brandon Finney Jr. had three takeaways by himself.

The Ducks are 0-6 after first-round byes in the expanded playoff era. But they're also the only team left who's played both semifinalists this season. They beat Ole Miss and lost to Indiana. Make of that what you will.

The Bye Week Curse Is Real

Top seeds are now 0-6 in quarterfinal games following first-round byes. They're losing by an average of 15.3 points. That's not a fluke anymore—that's a pattern.

Teams that play in the first round have game-tested their rotations, worked out the rust, and found their playoff gear. Bye teams come in cold. We saw it with Texas Tech getting shut out. We saw it with Georgia blowing a lead to Ole Miss. We saw it with Ohio State and Alabama getting boat-raced.

If you're betting the semis, this is critical context. Indiana and Oregon both played competitive first-round games. They've got momentum. They've got rhythm. The bye curse might be dead for the semis, but it's something to track.

Sharp Money Angle

Early money on the Fiesta Bowl has leaned slightly toward Ole Miss, likely from bettors who think Chambliss is the best QB remaining in the tournament. Miami's defense will be tested.

The Peach Bowl opened at Indiana -3 and has ticked up to -3.5. The public loves the Hoosiers after watching them murder Alabama. But Oregon is a live dog here—they've got the defensive blueprint and they've seen this movie before.

The Bottom Line

The semifinals are giving us drama we didn't expect. Two double-digit seeds in the Fiesta Bowl, a rematch in the Peach Bowl, and lines tight enough that any outcome feels possible. If you've been riding underdogs all playoff, there's no reason to stop now. The chaos isn't over—it's just getting started.