It didn't take long for the whales to surface. Less than 24 hours after the conference championship games wrapped up, Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas took a $1.1 million bet on the New England Patriots to upset the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.

The balls on this person. The absolute stones.

The Quick Hit

• The bet: $1.1 million on Patriots moneyline
• The odds: +188
• The potential payout: $3,168,000 total
• Current line: Seahawks -4.5

Jeffrey Benson, Circa's Director of Operations, posted the ticket on X. The professional betting-friendly book welcomes action from anyone—including whales who want to drop seven figures on an underdog.

Why This Matters

Circa isn't your average sportsbook. They don't limit winners, they don't kick out sharps, and they'll take massive bets from anyone with the bankroll. When big money shows up there, it's worth paying attention.

Now, one bet doesn't move markets. But this is the first million-dollar wager reported on Super Bowl LX, and it landed squarely on the underdog. New England at +188 implies roughly a 35% chance of winning. This bettor is essentially saying the market has it wrong.

The last time New England was an underdog in the Super Bowl? Tom Brady's first full season in 2002. The Patriots have been favorites in every Super Bowl appearance since—and won most of them.

The Case for New England

If you squint, you can see the argument. The Patriots went 9-0 on the road this season—a first in NFL history. Drake Maye beat three top-5 defenses in the playoffs alone. The defense just held Denver to 7 points in a blizzard.

Their path to the Super Bowl wasn't flashy, but it was effective. Maye hasn't turned the ball over in three playoff games. Mike Vrabel has this team playing disciplined, physical football.

Seattle is the better team on paper. Sam Darnold has been outstanding. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a problem. But the Patriots have beaten better teams before.

Other Big Money on the Board

This isn't the only massive ticket riding on Super Bowl LX:

• A $50K preseason bet on Seattle to win the NFC at +2800 already paid out $1.4 million
• That same bettor has another $150K riding on Seahawks futures with a potential $4.5 million payout
• A $50K wager on Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 35-1 (placed at DraftKings) would pay $1.8 million

The Seahawks are getting the majority of public money. But the million-dollar bets are split—one whale on Seattle futures, one whale on New England moneyline.

Line Movement

Seattle opened at -3.5 and quickly moved to -4. Most books now have the Seahawks at -4.5, with BetMGM pushing to -5 in spots. The total sits at 46.5.

The movement toward Seattle makes sense given public sentiment. But if you're betting New England, waiting for the line to inflate might be the play. We could see -5 or -5.5 by kickoff if the Seahawks money keeps flowing.

The Bottom Line

A $1.1 million bet on a 4.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl is either the most degenerate thing we've seen all year or an incredibly sharp play. Maybe both.

The Patriots haven't been dogs in a Super Bowl since 2002. Underdogs have won the last three Super Bowls outright. The trends say New England has a shot.

If this whale cashes, they'll make more in one bet than most of us will see in a lifetime. And honestly? We're rooting for them. That's what being a degen is all about.