Conference Championship Sunday is loaded with prop betting opportunities, and the quarterback situations make this weekend particularly interesting. Jarrett Stidham's debut, Sam Darnold's redemption arc, and two of the best defenses in football create a buffet of player props worth exploring.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Prop markets are live for Sunday's title games
• The damage: Stidham TD o/u at 0.5, Darnold interceptions juiced
• Why you should care: Props often offer better value than spreads
• The move: Target the quarterback props in both games

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Jarrett Stidham Props

The market has zero confidence in Stidham, and the props reflect it:

The Stidham under 0.5 TDs at +154 is fascinating. You're getting plus-money on the proposition that a quarterback in a conference championship game won't throw a single touchdown. That tells you everything about how the market views this situation.

The thinking: The Patriots defense has been dominant in the playoffs. Denver will likely try to run the ball and manage the game. Stidham hasn't thrown a regular-season pass in over two years. One or two INTs with zero TDs is a realistic outcome.

Drake Maye Props

The Patriots QB has been the story of New England's turnaround:

Maye over 1.5 passing TDs at -125 is my favorite AFC prop. The Patriots don't need to air it out, but Maye has been efficient in the red zone and Denver's pass defense has been exploitable.

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

Sam Darnold Props

Darnold has thrown SIX interceptions in two games against Seattle this season. The props are priced accordingly:

Darnold over 1.5 INTs at -110 is nearly a lock based on the sample size. He's thrown 6 picks in 2 games against this defense. Even if you think he's figured something out, Seattle's secondary has been in his head all season.

The counter-argument: Darnold has been much better since that Week 16 disaster. He led the Rams on a wild comeback against the Panthers and looked sharp in the divisional round. Maybe the third time's the charm.

Running Back Props

This game could feature heavy rushing with both teams respecting the other's passing attack:

Kenneth Walker over 85.5 rush yards makes sense after his dominant divisional round performance. Seattle will lean on the run game at home, and Walker has been their closer all season.

Best Prop Bets

Here's my prop card for Sunday:

AFC Championship:

1. Stidham under 0.5 passing TDs (+154) ⭐
2. Maye over 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
3. Total under 42.5 (-110)

NFC Championship:

1. Darnold over 1.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐
2. Kenneth Walker over 85.5 rush yards (-115)
3. Darnold anytime turnover (-200)

The Live Betting Angle

Both games set up well for live betting:

• AFC: If Denver gets an early lead, Stidham props will adjust. Lock in the unders before the line moves.
• NFC: If the Rams fall behind early, Darnold's INT prop could go from 1.5 to 2.5. Wait for the right number.

The Bottom Line

Conference Championship props offer some of the best value of the entire playoffs. The Stidham situation is unprecedented—you're essentially betting on whether a guy with four career starts can score a touchdown against the best defense in the postseason.

Darnold's interception history against Seattle is too consistent to ignore. Even if he plays well, one or two picks feels inevitable.

The key to prop betting these games: trust the matchup data over the narrative. Stidham might surprise everyone. Darnold might have finally solved Seattle. But the props are priced based on probability, and the probabilities say fade the optimism.

Sunday at 3 PM (AFC) and 6:30 PM (NFC). Prop bets are live. Let's ride.