The final college football game of 2025 might be the best one. Ohio State and Miami square off in the Cotton Bowl CFP quarterfinal tonight, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Let's break down everything you need to know before pulling the trigger.

The Quick Hit

• What's happening: CFP Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
• The damage: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 48.5
• Why you should care: This is playoff football with the national championship on the line
• The move: Analysis below, but the under is interesting

The Line Movement Story

Ohio State opened around -9 and has settled at -9.5 at most books. The money has been relatively balanced, which is unusual for a game featuring two big-name programs. The public typically hammers the more recognizable name, but bettors seem genuinely uncertain here.

The total opened at 50 and has ticked down to 48.5. That movement suggests sharp money on the under, which makes sense when you consider Ohio State's defense and the magnitude of the moment.

Ohio State's Revenge Tour

The Buckeyes lost to Indiana 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game. Embarrassing. Humiliating. The kind of loss that ends seasons.

Except it didn't. Ohio State still made the playoff, drew Tennessee in the first round, and proceeded to beat the absolute brakes off them 42-17. That game was never close. The Buckeyes came out angry and stayed angry.

Ryan Day has been under fire all season. The Michigan losses, the Indiana disaster, the constant questions about whether he's the guy. This playoff run is his chance to silence everyone. Expect Ohio State to play with an edge tonight.

Miami's Cam Ward Problem

Cam Ward is electric. He can make throws that most quarterbacks can't dream of. He's also prone to hero ball, forcing passes into coverage when the play breaks down.

Against Ohio State's defense, that tendency could be fatal. The Buckeyes have NFL talent at every level. Their secondary can match up with anyone, and their pass rush has been terrorizing quarterbacks all season.

Ward will make some plays. He'll probably have a highlight-reel throw or two. But he'll also likely have moments where he tries to do too much and puts the ball in danger. Against this defense, one or two bad decisions could swing the game.

The Total Analysis

The 48.5 total feels about right, maybe even a bit high. Ohio State's defense is legitimately elite. Miami's offense is explosive but can go cold when facing pressure. The playoff atmosphere tends to tighten things up.

That under at 48.5 might be the sharpest play on the board. Ohio State wants to control the clock, run the ball, and make Miami one-dimensional. If they execute that game plan, we might be looking at something in the 28-17 range.

The Spread Breakdown

9.5 points is a big number for a playoff game. But Ohio State covered by 25 against Tennessee, and Miami hasn't faced a defense this talented all season.

The Hurricanes' best win was probably against Louisville. Solid team, not elite. Nothing on their schedule prepared them for what Ohio State brings defensively.

The argument for Miami covering is basically: Cam Ward magic. He's capable of keeping any team in any game. If he's on, and the offensive line gives him time, Miami can score on anyone.

The argument for Ohio State covering: superior talent at every position, a defense designed to stop offenses like Miami's, and a coaching staff that desperately needs this win.

Sharp vs. Public

The public has been relatively split on this one, which is unusual. Ohio State is the bigger brand, but Miami has the flashier quarterback. Neither side has been hammered excessively.

Sharp money appears to have hit the under and the Ohio State side, but it hasn't been the kind of overwhelming steam you sometimes see on playoff games.

The Pick

Ohio State -9.5 with less confidence than I'd like. The Buckeyes have more margin for error, a better defense, and more motivation. But 9.5 is a lot to lay in a playoff game against a quarterback who can explode at any moment.

Under 48.5 with more confidence. This feels like a defensive game where Ohio State controls the tempo and Miami struggles to sustain drives.

If you want to be conservative, take the Ohio State money line at -360. It implies about 78% win probability, and I think the Buckeyes win by double digits.

The Bottom Line

Tonight's Cotton Bowl is the last college football game of 2025 and it's a banger. Ohio State is the better team on paper, but Cam Ward can make paper irrelevant. The under looks solid, the spread is a coinflip, and if you just want to watch great football without sweating, that's okay too. Kickoff at 7:30 PM ET. Let's end the year with a winner.