Arizona is hot. SMU is... trying to remember what winning a bowl game feels like.

The Wildcats roll into Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego for Friday night's Holiday Bowl as 2.5-point favorites against a Mustangs team that hasn't won a bowl game since 2012.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: No. 17 Arizona (9-3) vs SMU (8-4) at 8:00 PM ET
• The damage: Arizona -2.5, O/U 52.5
• Why you should care: SMU hasn't won a bowl in 14 years; Arizona's riding momentum
• The move: Trust the team on the winning streak

Arizona's Finishing Strong

The Wildcats won their last five games of the regular season. They're 9-3 in the Big 12 and have covered four of those final five contests, exceeding expectations by an average of 14.5 points.

That's not just winning—that's dominating the number.

Arizona ranks among the best teams in America in turnover margin. Their offense takes care of the ball, and their defense forces mistakes. Against an SMU team that lives and dies by the takeaway, this is a dangerous matchup for the Mustangs.

SMU's Bowl Drought Is Embarrassing

The Mustangs have switched conferences twice since their last bowl victory—a 2012 Hawaii Bowl win over Fresno State. They've dropped five straight bowl games, and most of them weren't close.

The ACC didn't do SMU any favors with this matchup. Arizona is playing well, they're the higher-ranked team, and they've got the momentum that SMU lacks.

Kevin Jennings leads a Mustangs offense that can score, but can they do it against a Wildcats defense that's been ball-hawking all season? That's the question nobody in Dallas wants to answer.

Betting Trends Point to Value

SMU is 5-2 in their last seven games as an underdog. That's notable. The Mustangs have been undervalued by the market in these spots, and 2.5 points in a bowl game is essentially a pick 'em.

SportsLine's model has SMU covering 57% of the time. That's not overwhelming, but it suggests the line is tight for a reason.

On the flip side, Arizona's ATS record when favored is strong. The Wildcats have won seven games against the spread this season, and their late-season run suggests they're peaking at the right time.

The X-Factor: Turnover Battle

SMU's defense forces turnovers. They've had two or more takeaways in eight games this season—among the best marks in the country.

But Arizona leads the nation in turnover margin. Nobody protects the ball better. Something's got to give.

If SMU wins the turnover battle, they've got a real shot at snapping that bowl drought. If Arizona wins it, the Wildcats probably cruise to a cover.

Sharp vs. Square

Early money has slightly favored SMU, with sharps respecting the 5-2 underdog ATS record. But the public is going to come in on Arizona after watching them finish the season so strong.

The line opened at Arizona -2.5 and has held steady. If it moves to -3, that's a significant indicator—books don't want to cross the field goal number unless they have to.

The Bottom Line

This game comes down to whether you trust momentum or value. Arizona's on fire and hasn't lost since October. SMU's been good as underdogs but hasn't won a bowl game in 14 years. The line is tight enough that either side feels reasonable, but if you're forcing us to pick, ride the hot hand. Arizona's got too much going for them right now, and bowl season momentum has been carrying teams all week. Take the Wildcats and sweat the hook.