Indiana Annihilates Oregon 56-22, Opens -7.5 vs Miami
The Hoosiers put on an absolute clinic in the Peach Bowl, dismantling Oregon to set up a national championship date with Miami on January 19.
By Sharp Money Mike
Indiana isn't just good. Indiana is historically dominant.
The Hoosiers went into the Peach Bowl last night and absolutely demolished Oregon 56-22, becoming the first team in CFP history to win two playoff games by 28-plus points. They covered the -7 spread by... 27 points. If you had them on the moneyline, congrats. If you had them -7, same energy. If you had them in a teaser, you're a genius.
The Quick Hit
- Final: Indiana 56, Oregon 22
- The cover: Indiana -7 covered by 27 points
- Title game line: Indiana -7.5 vs Miami (January 19)
- The angle: Indiana already beat Oregon 30-20 in the regular season — then beat them worse the second time
This Was a Statement
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza was absolutely unconscious. Five touchdown passes. Completed 10 of his first 11 throws. The Hoosiers led 35-7 at halftime, and the only question was whether they'd cover the over (they did — 56.5 was the number).
Indiana's defense forced turnovers that turned into touchdowns. D'Angelo Ponds had a pick-six. The Ducks had no answers. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who'd been lights-out in the playoff run, got exposed.
This was supposed to be a competitive rematch. Indiana won the first meeting 30-20 in Eugene back in November. The books thought Oregon would be closer this time. The books were wrong.
The Title Game Setup
Indiana opens as a 7.5-point favorite against Miami at Hard Rock Stadium on January 19. The -320 moneyline implies a 76% chance the Hoosiers complete the undefeated season.
Miami backed into the championship after escaping Ole Miss 31-27 on a Carson Beck touchdown scramble with 18 seconds left. They've won three playoff games by a combined 18 points. Indiana has won two by a combined 69.
The contrast couldn't be more stark.
What the Numbers Say
Indiana is 15-0, one win away from becoming the first FBS team ever to win 16 games in a season. They're the only team in the country ranked top three on offense AND defense by SP+. They have the Heisman winner, the best offensive line Miami has faced, and an absolutely suffocating defense.
Miami has Carson Beck, who's been clutch in tight games. They have home-field advantage (first team ever to play the CFP title game in their own stadium). And they have... hope?
Look, the CFP bye team curse has been brutal this year. Alabama lost to Indiana 38-3. Ohio State lost to Miami 24-14. The teams that rested got exposed. The teams that kept playing got better.
But Miami isn't a bye team. They've won three games. They've found ways to survive. And 7.5 points is a lot to lay in a title game.
The Betting Angles
Early money has come in on Indiana. The line opened at -7 and has already moved to -7.5 at most shops. The total opened at 48.5.
For Indiana -7.5: They've covered every spread in the playoffs by double digits. Their defense hasn't allowed more than 26 points all season. Mendoza is playing like the best quarterback in the country.
For Miami +7.5: Championship games are weird. Carson Beck has ice in his veins late in games. Home field matters. And the market seems to be overreacting to the blowouts.
The Bottom Line
Indiana just put together one of the most dominant performances in CFP history. They're 15-0, they have the Heisman winner, and they've been double-digit favorites in both playoff games.
But title games have a way of being closer than expected. The books have learned that lesson, which is why this line is 7.5 and not 14.
Still... did you watch last night? Because that was a murder, and Indiana looked like they could do it to anyone.