The line keeps moving against Miami. Indiana opened as 7.5-point favorites for Monday's CFP National Championship, and as of Wednesday that number has ballooned to -8.5. The Hoosiers are heavy chalk at -350 on the moneyline, and they're trying to accomplish something no college football team has ever done: finish 16-0.

The Quick Hit

• Game: CFP National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
• Date: Monday, January 19 at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
• Spread: Indiana -8.5 (opened -7.5)
• Total: 48.5 points
• Moneyline: Indiana -325, Miami +260

Why the Line Keeps Moving

Indiana demolished Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl semifinal. That wasn't a game—it was a statement. The Hoosiers' offense is operating at an elite level, their defense can clamp down when needed, and they've handled every challenge this season with room to spare.

Meanwhile, Miami has scraped through every single playoff game. They survived a 10-3 slugfest at Texas A&M in the first round. They ground out a 24-14 win over Ohio State in the quarters. They needed a last-second touchdown to beat Ole Miss in the semifinals.

The market is telling you that Miami's run might have used up all their luck. Surviving close games is a skill, but eventually the dam breaks.

The 16-0 Chase

No team in the modern era has finished 16-0. Not Alabama. Not Clemson. Not anyone. Indiana is 15-0 and one win away from making history.

That kind of narrative matters in sports betting. Teams playing for legacy often perform better than teams just trying to survive. Indiana knows what's at stake, and their dominant semifinal performance suggests they're not going to let this slip.

Miami's Case

The Hurricanes are 3-0 straight up as underdogs this postseason. They've thrived in the underdog role, and they've proven they can win ugly when needed. This is their home stadium—Hard Rock is where the Dolphins play, and the crowd will be decidedly pro-Miami.

They also have nothing to lose. Miami's playoff berth was controversial to begin with. Every win has been house money. That lack of pressure could free them up to play loose and take shots.

The Total Tells a Story

The over/under at 48.5 points suggests oddsmakers expect this to be a grind. That aligns more with Miami's MO (three straight low-scoring wins) than Indiana's (56 points in the semifinal).

If you believe Indiana's offense shows up like it did against Oregon, the over is probably the play. If you think Miami's defense makes this a rock fight, the under makes sense. Either way, the total is another way to get action on this game.

The Bottom Line

Indiana opened -7.5 and is now -8.5 because the market respects what the Hoosiers have done all season. Miami has heart and home-field advantage, but they've been surviving on fumes while Indiana has been dominant. The Hoosiers are one win from perfection, and the odds suggest they're going to get it. If you like Miami, the +8.5 and +260 moneyline offer decent value—but you're betting against the best team in the country on their biggest stage.