The Jacksonville Jaguars have come too far to blow it now. A win over the Tennessee Titans Sunday clinches the AFC South. If they win and both the Broncos and Patriots lose, Jacksonville would be the number one seed in the entire AFC.

From laughingstock to potential top seed. What a turnaround.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Jaguars (13-3) host Titans (4-12) with division title on the line
• The damage: Jacksonville -13.5, total 43.5, Jags ML around -700
• Why you should care: This is the Jaguars' moment to prove they're legit contenders
• The move: Jaguars -13.5 is the play, but tease it down if you're nervous

Trevor Lawrence's Redemption Tour

Remember when everyone wrote off Trevor Lawrence? When the Jaguars were a punchline? When drafting the Clemson phenom first overall seemed like a waste of generational talent?

Look at them now.

Lawrence has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, leading Jacksonville to a 13-3 record and control of their own destiny. The supporting cast finally showed up, the defense finally got healthy, and the Jaguars are playing like Super Bowl contenders.

The Titans Are Cooked

Tennessee is 4-12 and has already fired their coaching staff's trajectory into the sun. Will Levis has shown flashes but hasn't been consistent enough to suggest he's the long-term answer.

The Titans have nothing to play for except pride, and even that's been in short supply lately. Their defense has given up 25+ points in each of the last four games, and their offense can't sustain drives against competent defenses.

Jacksonville's defense is very competent.

The Line Movement

This opened at Jaguars -12 and has climbed to -13.5. The market believes Jacksonville is going to roll, and history suggests they should. The Jags are 9-2 against the spread as favorites this season.

The total opened at 45 and has dropped to 43.5, suggesting both offenses might be held in check. Tennessee's inability to score meets Jacksonville's motivation to protect a lead. Makes sense.

The Playoff Picture Chaos

Here's where it gets fun. Jacksonville clinches the AFC South with a win or tie, or with a Texans loss or tie. But the really wild scenario:

If the Jaguars win AND the Broncos lose AND the Patriots lose, Jacksonville would be the AFC's number one seed.

That's a lot of dominoes that need to fall, but it's possible. And if there's one thing we've learned about Week 18, it's that chaos always finds a way.

The Betting Angles

Jaguars -13.5 (-110): Jacksonville covers double-digit spreads. They've been doing it all season. Tennessee has no answer for this offense, and the Jags want to make a statement before the playoffs.

Under 43.5 (-110): Jacksonville gets up early and runs the ball to kill clock. Tennessee can't sustain drives. This one ends in the low 30s combined.

Trevor Lawrence Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115): Lawrence has hit this number in 10 of 16 games, and the Titans' secondary has been getting torched. He goes off one more time before the playoffs.

The Historical Context

The Jaguars haven't won a division title since 2017. They haven't hosted a playoff game since 1999. This franchise has been waiting for a moment like this for decades.

Doug Pederson has built something special in Jacksonville, and Sunday is the culmination of all that work. The AFC playoff race has been brutal, but the Jaguars have navigated it beautifully.

Why the Titans Might Cover

There's always a contrarian case. Professional athletes hate getting embarrassed. Tennessee's players are still fighting for roster spots next year, and laying down in a nationally televised game isn't a good look.

Will Levis might come out firing just to prove something. The Titans' defense might show up knowing they're playing spoiler against a hated division rival.

But probably not. Jacksonville is just too good, and Tennessee has been too bad.

The Bottom Line

Take the Jaguars -13.5 and don't overthink it. This is a playoff team flexing on a tanking squad. The spread should probably be higher.

Jaguars 34, Titans 17. Jacksonville clinches the AFC South, secures home-field advantage for Wild Card weekend, and waits to see if the chaos gods deliver them the top seed.

LFG Duval.