Jarrett Stidham hasn't thrown a regular-season pass in two years. His four career starts came for teams that were already out of contention. He's never appeared in a playoff game.

Next Sunday, he'll start the AFC Championship Game with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

The Quick Hit

• Career starts: 4 (all on losing teams)
• Regular-season passes (last 2 years): 0
• Contract: 2-year, $12 million extension signed March 2025
• The stage: AFC Championship Game vs Patriots or Texans
• Payton's take: "He's ready. Just watch."

The Journey

Stidham played college football at Auburn after transferring from Baylor. The Patriots selected him in the fourth round of the 2019 draft as a potential Tom Brady successor—yes, that was actually a thing people talked about.

He spent three seasons in New England, mostly watching. He made one start for the Raiders in 2022 when Las Vegas was already eliminated. He joined the Broncos in 2023 and has been the ultimate clipboard holder ever since.

When Denver signed him to a two-year, $12 million extension in March 2025 with $7 million guaranteed, it seemed like insurance. The kind of contract that hopefully never matters.

Now it matters more than anyone could have imagined.

The Skills

At 6'3" and 218 pounds, Stidham has the physical tools. He was considered a decent prospect coming out of college, with enough arm strength and decision-making ability to be a competent NFL starter.

The question is execution. He hasn't taken meaningful snaps in a real game in years. NFL speed is different from practice. Playoff pressure is different from Week 17 garbage time.

Sean Payton has praised Stidham throughout the season, calling him a "2 that's capable of starting for a handful of teams." We're about to find out if that confidence was warranted.

The Challenge

The Broncos have the league's best defense. They can win games without their quarterback putting up gaudy numbers. But the AFC Championship Game—with a Super Bowl on the line—is a different beast.

Stidham doesn't need to be Bo Nix, who threw three touchdowns in Saturday's overtime win. He needs to manage the game, protect the ball, and let Denver's defense do the heavy lifting.

The problem: his four career starts suggest nothing about his ability to do that under pressure.

The Betting Implications

Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite for the AFC title game before Nix's injury was announced. That number will move. How much depends on how the market perceives Stidham's ability.

Some bettors will see a backup quarterback in over his head. Others will point to Denver's dominant defense and coaching staff. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle—a Broncos team that's good enough to win but significantly more vulnerable than they were 24 hours ago.

The Historic Context

Backup quarterbacks have won Super Bowls before. Nick Foles did it. Jeff Hostetler did it. Tom Brady was a backup once.

But those guys had meaningful playing time before their biggest moments. Stidham has essentially none. He's walking into the biggest game of his career—and Denver's biggest game in a decade—with zero recent experience.

The Bottom Line

This is the football gods giving us chaos. The Broncos just beat the Bills in overtime to reach the AFC Championship. Their reward? Starting a quarterback who hasn't thrown a regular-season pass in two years. Sometimes the universe has a twisted sense of humor.