The first Road to the Kentucky Derby races of 2026 are in the books, and the futures board just got interesting.

Ted Noffey is still the favorite at 7.5-1, but two surprise winners crashed the party over the weekend and suddenly the path to Churchill Downs isn't quite as clear.

The Quick Hit

• Current favorite: Ted Noffey (7.5-1)
• Weekend movers: Strategic Risk (95-1 → 50-1), My World (90-1 → 75-1)
• Next Future Wager pool: January 16-18
• Derby date: Saturday, May 2, 2026

Ted Noffey: The Winter Book Favorite

The Into Mischief colt went 4-for-4 as a juvenile, capping the campaign with three straight Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful, Breeders' Futurity, and Juvenile. He's got 40 qualifying points — more than anyone else — and he's the official winter book favorite.

Here's the caveat: winter book favorites have produced only ONE Kentucky Derby winner since 2000. That's not great.

Being the favorite in January means you've got a target on your back for five months. A lot can go wrong between now and the first Saturday in May.

The Weekend Upsets

Strategic Risk (50-1)

Mark Casse's colt won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday, earning 10 qualifying points and immediately demanding attention.

The Noble Bird colt had already shown promise with a nine-length romp in the Florida Sire In Reality in November. The Smarty Jones win proved it wasn't a fluke.

His odds dropped from 95-1 to 50-1 overnight. That's a 45-point swing on one race.

My World (75-1)

Brad Cox's Essential Quality colt took the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, making it three straight wins and earning 10 more points.

My World stalked the 3-5 favorite Balboa before drawing clear in the stretch. It was a gutsy performance against a heavily-backed opponent.

From 90-1 to 75-1, he's now on the radar.

Other Names to Watch

Further Ado (10-1): The second choice behind Ted Noffey after his 1 3/4-length win in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Gun Runner colt trained by Brad Cox.

Obliteration (85-1): Returned to the futures board after dominating the Renaissance by 7 1/2 lengths at Oaklawn. Steve Asmussen trainee with Grade 3 credentials.

Bob Baffert Horses: The Hall of Fame trainer has 11 horses on the futures board, including Boyd, Brant (22-1), and several longshots. He's seeking a record seventh Kentucky Derby victory.

The Betting Strategy

January futures are all about finding value before the market corrects. Ted Noffey at 7.5-1 isn't bad, but you're not getting lottery odds on the favorite.

The plays:

Strategic Risk at 50-1: Just won a points race. Casse knows how to get horses to the Derby. If he keeps winning, this price disappears.

Obliteration at 85-1: Asmussen's track record speaks for itself. An 85-1 horse that just won by 7 1/2 lengths has upside.

The "All Other" Field: Most futures books offer a catch-all bet on horses not individually listed. Historically, a significant percentage of Derby winners come from this group. At around 7-1, it's always worth a look.

The Calendar

• January 16-18: Next Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool
• February-March: Prep races accelerate
• April: Final qualifiers
• May 2: Kentucky Derby 152

The Bottom Line

The Road to the Kentucky Derby is a marathon, not a sprint. Ted Noffey has the lead, but we're only at the first mile marker.

The weekend upsets remind us that this race changes weekly. Today's longshot is next month's contender. Today's favorite can stub a hoof and disappear.

Bet accordingly. Watch the preps. And remember: in horse racing, the only thing guaranteed is that nothing is guaranteed.

See you at Churchill.