Navy's going for program history today. Cincinnati's going for survival with half their roster already thinking about next season.

The Liberty Bowl kicks off at 4:30 PM ET, and the Midshipmen are 7.5-point favorites for a reason.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Navy (10-2) vs Cincinnati (7-5) in the Liberty Bowl at 4:30 PM ET
• The damage: Navy -7.5, O/U 54.5
• Why you should care: An 11th win would be a Navy program record
• The move: Service academy bowl trends are impossible to ignore

Navy's Chasing History

The Midshipmen finished tied for the American Conference regular-season championship with a 10-2 record. An 11th win would set a new program record.

Navy's rushing attack ranks first in the FBS at 289.3 yards per game. That's not a typo—they run for nearly 300 yards a game. The triple option is alive and well in Annapolis, and bowl game opponents consistently underestimate how hard it is to prepare for in a short window.

Ken Niumatalolo has these guys playing with discipline and execution that wears down defenses. By the fourth quarter, opposing front sevens are gassed and making mistakes. That's when Navy twists the knife.

Cincinnati Is Missing Everyone

The Bearcats lost four straight to end the regular season. That's bad enough. But the portal and opt-out hits make this worse.

Star quarterback Brendan Sorsby is one of the top players in the transfer portal. Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone and linebacker Jake Golday have opted out. The secondary is basically a shell of what it was during the season.

Cincinnati is 98th in run defense, allowing 173.2 yards per game. Against the best rushing attack in the country, with half their defenders either checked out or physically absent, the Bearcats are facing a long afternoon.

The Trend That Matters Most

Service academy schools are 19-3 against the spread in their last 22 bowl games.

That's not a fluke. It's not variance. It's a structural advantage.

Bowl prep for option teams is a nightmare. Opposing defenses spend weeks preparing for spread offenses, then have to completely rewire their assignments in two weeks. Meanwhile, service academies run the same scheme year after year, game after game.

Navy's ATS record this season (4-8) might scare you off. But their bowl game track record speaks louder.

Betting Angles

The under has hit in each of the last two Navy games and in three of the last four head-to-head matchups between these programs. Cincinnati's defense is bad, but Navy controls the clock so thoroughly that they often suppress totals by default.

If you like Navy, you probably like the under too. It's hard to run 75 plays when Navy's holding the ball for 38 minutes.

The 7.5 spread feels like the market is daring you to take Cincinnati. After watching the CFP quarterfinals yesterday, we know how favorites have been performing. But Cincinnati isn't Georgia or Ohio State. They're a .500 Big 12 team that already quit on their season.

The Injury Report

Cincinnati's opt-outs are the bigger story than any injury. When your QB is already in the portal and your best defenders are watching from home, the injury report becomes secondary.

Navy comes in healthy and motivated. They've got program history on the line and a squad that's been building toward this moment all year.

The Bottom Line

Navy should run all over Cincinnati today. The Bearcats are undermanned, outcoached, and facing a scheme they can't prepare for in two weeks. The service academy bowl trend is real, and 7.5 points feels like it's not enough. If you're betting this game, ride with the Midshipmen and consider pairing it with the under. Navy wants to control this game, and they've got every tool to do exactly that.