If you grabbed Tennessee at -8.5 when this line opened, congratulations — you're currently sitting on six points of value and feeling pretty damn good about yourself.

For everyone else, the Music City Bowl line has crashed harder than your buddy's bankroll at a Vegas blackjack table. Tennessee opened as an 8.5-point favorite. As of this morning, they're laying just 2.5 points.

That's a six-point swing. In a bowl game. In the span of a few days.

The Quick Hit

• Current line: Tennessee -2.5 (opened -8.5)
• Total: 61.5 (opened 61.5)
• Moneyline: Tennessee -135 / Illinois +114
• Kickoff: Tonight at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN

Why the Line Cratered

Two words: opt-outs and Altmyer.

Tennessee is down several key players who've decided to protect their draft stock rather than play in Nashville. Receiver Chris Brazzell II, cornerback Colton Hood, edge rusher Joshua Josephs, and linebacker Arion Carter are among the notable absences. When your best players are watching from the couch, your point spread tends to follow.

Meanwhile, Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer announced he's suiting up. That's massive. Altmyer gives the Illini a real chance to hang in this game, and the market has reacted accordingly.

Sharp Money Is Sniffing Around

When you see this kind of line movement, you can bet sharps are involved. Six points of steam in either direction doesn't happen because recreational bettors suddenly got smart about bowl games.

The question now: Is there still value on Illinois at +2.5? Or has the number moved too far?

Illinois finished the regular season 9-3 and beat Nebraska, Michigan, and Michigan State along the way. This isn't some garbage-tier program stumbling into a bowl game. With Altmyer under center and Tennessee missing pieces, the Illini have a real shot.

On the flip side, Tennessee still has the more talented roster overall. Even with opt-outs, the Vols should have the edge at most position groups. The question is whether that edge is worth laying points when your opponent has their starting quarterback and you're running out a depleted lineup.

The Total

The over/under has held steady at 61.5, which suggests books aren't expecting the opt-outs to dramatically impact scoring. Both offenses should be able to move the ball, and neither defense is exactly airtight.

That number feels about right. If anything, the under might have slight value if Tennessee's offense takes a step back without some of its weapons.

The Bottom Line

This line has moved too much for us to pound the table on either side. If you got Tennessee early, sit back and enjoy your head start. If you're looking to bet this now, Illinois +2.5 is the more interesting play — you're essentially getting a pick'em with points attached.

Bowl games are chaos. Opt-outs make them even more chaotic. But when the chaos moves a line six points, you can bet someone's making money on it.

Just make sure it's you.