New Year's Eve Bowl Games Betting Guide: 5 Games Including Cotton Bowl CFP
Complete betting breakdown of today's five bowl games featuring Iowa-Vanderbilt, Texas-Michigan, and the Ohio State-Miami CFP quarterfinal.
By Sharp Money Mike
Happy New Year's Eve, you beautiful degenerates. While everyone else is picking out their party outfits, we're breaking down five bowl games that'll keep you locked in from noon until the fireworks start. Let's get to work.
The Quick Hit
- What's happening: Five bowl games on New Year's Eve, including a CFP quarterfinal
- The damage: Lines ranging from pick'em territory to double-digit spreads
- Why you should care: Perfect way to build your bankroll before midnight
- The move: We've got analysis on every game below
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (12:00 PM ET, ESPN)
Line: Vanderbilt -5.5 | O/U: 46.5
The Hawkeyes defense against a Vanderbilt offense that's been playing with house money all season. Clark Lea has these Commodores believing they belong, but can they cover against Iowa's suffocating D?
The total screams under. Iowa has played in more rock fights than a medieval castle siege. Vandy might have the edge, but 5.5 feels like too many points for a team that just beat ranked opponents.
Sharp lean: Iowa +5.5, Under 46.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke (2:00 PM ET, CBS)
Line: Duke -3 | O/U: 49.5
Arizona State comes in with momentum from a Big 12 run that nobody saw coming. Duke's had a solid season but this line feels a bit presumptuous. The Sun Devils have covered in four of their last five, and their offense can hang with anyone.
Sharp lean: Arizona State +3
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas (3:00 PM ET, ABC)
Line: Texas -7 | O/U: 48.5
The public is all over Texas here. We're talking 75% of bets and 88% of money on the Longhorns. That kind of one-sided action usually makes me nervous, but Texas has been the real deal this year and Michigan lost a step after their championship hangover.
Still, 7 points is a lot for a bowl game where motivation can be suspect. Michigan's defense can make this ugly.
Sharp lean: Over 48.5 (64% of money agrees)
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah (3:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Line: Utah -14 | O/U: 51.5
Utah just lost Kyle Whittingham to the Michigan job, which throws everything into chaos. The Utes are playing for a coach who won't be around next week. Nebraska's been building something under Matt Rhule, and 14 points feels like a lot of credit for a team dealing with coaching turmoil.
Sharp lean: Nebraska +14
Cotton Bowl CFP Quarterfinal: Miami vs. Ohio State (7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Line: Ohio State -9.5 | O/U: 48.5
This is the headliner, folks. Ohio State bounced back from that embarrassing Indiana loss by steamrolling Tennessee 42-17 in the first round. Cam Ward and Miami's offense are electric, but the Buckeyes defense is on a mission.
The 9.5 spread looks right. Miami can score, but they haven't faced a defense this aggressive all season. Ohio State's offensive line should control this game, and the Hurricanes tend to give up chunk plays when pressured.
Money line is -360 for Ohio State, which implies about 78% win probability. If you believe Miami can keep it within 10, there might be value on the points. But taking the Canes straight up at +285 feels like lighting money on fire.
Sharp lean: Under 48.5, Ohio State -9.5
Parlay of the Day
For you degens who want to ring in the new year with a bang:
- Iowa +5.5
- Under 46.5 (Iowa-Vandy)
- Arizona State +3
- Under 48.5 (Cotton Bowl)
That four-legger pays out around +1200 if it hits. Not financial advice, but it's one hell of a way to start 2026.
The Bottom Line
Five games, five opportunities. The Cotton Bowl is the crown jewel, but don't sleep on the early games. Arizona State +3 might be the best value on the board, and anyone betting Nebraska +14 against a lame-duck coaching staff isn't crazy. Get your bets in early, then settle in for a full day of football before the champagne starts flowing. LFG.