The NFL wants you to spend Christmas Day on your couch screaming at your television instead of talking to your family, and honestly, that's a gift in itself. Three games. Three opportunities. Let's break down every single angle so you can make informed decisions while explaining to your relatives why you need to check your phone every thirty seconds.

The Quick Hit

• Game 1: Cowboys at Commanders (1:00 PM ET on Netflix) — Dallas -6.5
• Game 2: Lions at Vikings (4:30 PM ET on Netflix) — Detroit -6
• Game 3: Broncos at Chiefs (8:15 PM ET on Prime Video) — Denver laying big lumber
• The angle: Two Netflix games require a subscription. The night game is on Amazon. Plan accordingly.

Game 1: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (1:00 PM ET)

Line: Cowboys -6.5 (-110) | Total: 50.5 | ML: Dallas -285, Washington +230

The Cowboys (7-6) are in must-win mode for the NFC Wild Card, and they're facing a Commanders team (4-11) that's basically playing for draft position at this point. Dallas cannot afford to drop this game, and the books know it.

The line opened at Cowboys -3 and has ballooned to -6.5. That's three and a half points of movement toward Dallas, suggesting the public and sharps alike are piling on the Cowboys.

The case for Dallas: They've won three of four, their offense has found some rhythm, and Washington has lost six straight.

The case for Washington: Division games get weird. The Commanders have nothing to lose, and that can be dangerous.

My lean: Cowboys -6.5 feels like a lot for a division rivalry game, but Washington has been genuinely terrible. Dallas covers.

Game 2: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (4:30 PM ET)

Line: Lions -6 (-112) | Total: 44.5 | ML: Detroit -245, Minnesota +200

This game just got a lot more interesting. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy left Week 16 with a hand injury. His X-rays came back negative, but he reportedly couldn't grip a football afterward. If McCarthy can't go, Minnesota is in trouble.

The Lions (8-7) dropped a heartbreaker at home in Week 16 and desperately need wins down the stretch. They're backed against a wall and playing like it.

The total has dropped from 48.5 to 44.5, which tells you the market expects a lower-scoring affair — probably due to McCarthy's status and the Lions potentially grinding this one out.

My lean: Take the under. If McCarthy plays hurt or doesn't play at all, this game gets ugly in a defensive way.

Game 3: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 PM ET)

Line: Broncos huge favorites | Total: 37.5 | ML: Denver -900, KC +600

What looked like a marquee matchup before the season now feels like coal in everyone's stocking. Patrick Mahomes is done for the year. The Chiefs are rolling out their third-string quarterback, Chris Oladokun. Denver has the NFL's best defense.

This is the Broncos' game to lose. At 11-2 (before their upset loss to the Jags), Denver controls its playoff destiny and just needs to take care of business against a depleted Kansas City squad.

The total of 37.5 is absurdly low, reflecting the expectation that this will be a defensive slog.

My lean: Broncos ML if you want juice-free action. The spread is probably too rich for a divisional game, even with KC's quarterback situation.

Christmas Day Parlay Ideas

Conservative:

• Cowboys ML + Lions ML + Broncos ML = roughly +110

Degen Special:

• Cowboys -6.5 + Under 44.5 (DET/MIN) + Broncos -10.5 (if available) = big plus money

Touchdown Parlay:

• CeeDee Lamb ATTD + Jahmyr Gibbs ATTD + Courtland Sutton ATTD = roughly +400

The Bottom Line

Christmas Day football is the perfect excuse to escape small talk about your career choices and relationship status. Three games, three chances to pad the bankroll (or explain to your family why you're suddenly very quiet during dessert).

Good luck, degenerates. May your spreads cover and your relatives stay off your back.