NFL Divisional Round Betting: Four Games Breakdown
Complete betting guide for all four Divisional Round games including Bills-Broncos, 49ers-Seahawks, Rams-Bears, and Texans-Patriots with lines and analysis.
By Sharp Money Mike
Wild Card Weekend delivered absolute chaos—four games decided by four points or fewer, record-setting fourth quarter drama, and enough bad beats to fill an entire therapy session. Now the Divisional Round is set, and the lines are out. Let's break down all four games so you degenerates know where to put your hard-earned cash.
The Quick Hit
- Saturday 4:30 PM ET: Bills (-1.5) at Broncos, O/U 46.5
- Saturday 8:00 PM ET: 49ers (+7) at Seahawks, O/U 45.5
- Sunday 3:00 PM ET: Texans (+2.5) at Patriots, O/U 42.5
- Sunday 6:30 PM ET: Rams (-3.5) at Bears, O/U 47.5
Bills (-1.5) at Broncos | Saturday 4:30 PM ET
The AFC's No. 1 seed being only 1.5-point favorites against a Wild Card team? That tells you everything about how the market views Denver's ceiling. Josh Allen is hobbled but led Buffalo to their first road playoff win since 1992 on Sunday. The Bills have won 9 of their last 10 and Allen has been in MVP form despite the injuries.
Denver earned the bye by winning the AFC West, but their offense has been inconsistent all year. This line screams "sharps don't trust the Broncos at home." The total opened at 47.5 and has held relatively steady.
The Play: Bills -1.5 is actually solid value for a road favorite in the playoffs. Denver hasn't proven they can beat elite competition when it matters.
49ers (+7) at Seahawks | Saturday 8:00 PM ET
This is the third meeting between these NFC West rivals this season, and San Francisco is absolutely decimated. George Kittle tore his Achilles on Sunday and joins Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brandon Aiyuk, and Ricky Pearsall on the injured list. At some point, the 49ers just run out of bodies.
Seattle won their Week 18 matchup that clinched the No. 1 seed and are riding a 7-game win streak. They're averaging a 12.9-point margin of victory during that stretch. The Seahawks defense has allowed the lowest EPA per carry in the NFL.
The Play: Seven points is a lot for a rivalry game, but the 49ers simply don't have the horses. Seattle -7 is steep but probably right.
Texans (+2.5) at Patriots | Sunday 3:00 PM ET
Two elite defenses collide in what could be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend. Houston just held Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to 175 yards and 6 points. New England held Justin Herbert and the Chargers to 3 points. Something's gotta give.
The Texans have won 10 straight games. Drake Maye has transformed the Patriots into a legitimate contender. This line feels like a pure toss-up dressed up as a home-field advantage.
The Play: Under 42.5 is the safest bet on the board. Both defenses are playing lights-out.
Rams (-3.5) at Bears | Sunday 6:30 PM ET
Chicago pulled off the third-largest fourth-quarter comeback in NFL history against Green Bay on Saturday. Caleb Williams threw for 184 yards in the fourth quarter alone after managing just 177 in the first three. That's the kind of magic that either continues or dies spectacularly.
The Rams needed their own late heroics against Carolina, surviving 34-31. Matthew Stafford is the MVP favorite and LA has the more complete roster, but Chicago has that wildcard energy that makes spreads dangerous.
The Play: This line opened at Rams -4.5 and has moved toward Chicago. Bears +3.5 feels like the public side, but the Rams are the better team. Lean LA if you can get -3.
Super Bowl Odds Update
Seattle leads the field at +270, followed by the Rams at +320. Denver sits at +380 despite being home underdogs this week. Houston's odds have shortened dramatically after their dominant Wild Card performance.
The Bottom Line
The Divisional Round is always where things get real. Bye teams historically dominate, but Wild Card Weekend showed us anything can happen. The smart money seems to be fading Denver at home and taking the under on Texans-Patriots. Make your plays, trust your reads, and remember—variance is a cruel mistress.