Two Saturday NFL games. Two critical playoff implications. Two completely different betting situations.

The Texans visit the Chargers in what should be a rock fight between two physical teams. The Ravens travel to Green Bay likely without Lamar Jackson, turning a must-win game into a desperation audible with Tyler Huntley.

Let's break down both games.

Game 1: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Time: 4:30 PM ET, CBS Line: Chargers -1.5 | Total: 39.5 | ML: LAC -125, HOU +105

The Setup

Houston (10-5) has already clinched the AFC South and is fighting for seeding. Los Angeles (11-4) is trying to lock up the AFC West with Denver breathing down their necks. Both teams are built on defense and running the football.

This game is going to be ugly. The total of 39.5 is the lowest of the week, and it might still be too high.

What To Watch

The Chargers' defense has been elite this season, ranking in the top five in points allowed. Jim Harbaugh has built this team in his image: physical, disciplined, and absolutely no fun to play against.

Houston's defense isn't quite as dominant, but they've been stingy in their own right. C.J. Stroud has had an inconsistent second season, and the Texans' offense has struggled to find rhythm since losing Tank Dell to a season-ending knee injury.

The Pick

This screams under. Both defenses are legitimate. Both offenses have struggled at times. The Chargers want to run the ball with J.K. Dobbins and chew clock. The Texans are content to play low-scoring, physical football.

Under 39.5 is the play. If you want a side, lean Chargers -1.5 at home, but the under is the stronger position.

Game 2: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Time: 8:00 PM ET, NFL Network Line: Packers -4.5 | Total: 40.5 | ML: GB -200, BAL +165

The Setup

Everything changed when Lamar Jackson was listed as doubtful with a back contusion. The Ravens (7-8) need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and they're likely doing it with Tyler Huntley.

Green Bay (9-6) already clinched a playoff berth when Detroit lost on Christmas. The Packers have less to play for, but they're at home and Jordan Love should be available despite his own injury concerns.

The Lamar Factor

Jackson hasn't practiced all week. He struggled to walk after the Patriots game. At this point, you should assume Huntley is starting and bet accordingly.

Without Lamar, the Ravens become a completely different team. Derrick Henry will get even more carries, but defenses can load the box without worrying about Jackson's scrambling ability. The passing game becomes predictable.

Baltimore went 1-2 with Huntley starting earlier this season. That's not encouraging for a must-win scenario.

What To Watch

If Jordan Love is less than 100 percent, this could get weird. Malik Willis would be competent but limited. Two backup quarterbacks in a Saturday night primetime game isn't exactly appointment television, but it creates uncertainty for bettors.

The total has already dropped from 42 to 40.5 in anticipation of a sloppy, run-heavy game.

The Pick

Packers -4.5 if Love plays. Green Bay at home against a backup quarterback in a game Baltimore desperately needs? The Packers should handle business.

If both quarterbacks are out, this becomes a stay-away. Two backup QBs in primetime is a recipe for chaos.

The Bottom Line

Saturday's NFL slate offers a low-scoring rock fight in LA and a potential backup quarterback duel in Green Bay. The unders look strong in both games. If you're picking sides, take the Chargers and Packers at home, but monitor the injury reports closely before lock.