Week 16 of the NFL season is here, degenerates, and the storylines are absolutely wild. Patrick Mahomes is done for the year. The Chiefs are playing with Gardner Minshew. TJ Watt has a fucking lung injury. And the Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win.

Let's break down the biggest games and find the value.

The Quick Hit

• Game of the week: Steelers at Lions (Detroit -7)
• Clinching scenario: Eagles beat Commanders, win NFC East
• Key injury: TJ Watt (lung) — status unknown for Sunday
• First post-Mahomes game: Chiefs at Titans (KC still -3)

Thursday Night: Rams vs Seahawks (FINAL)

The Rams handled business Thursday night, but if you missed it, the key takeaway is that the NFC West race is officially chaos. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, and every game matters down the stretch.

Saturday Afternoon: Eagles vs Commanders

Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 44.5

The biggest game of the weekend for playoff implications. If Philly wins, they clinch the NFC East. That's it. Division wrapped up with two weeks to spare.

Key info:

• Jayden Daniels is done for the season (elbow injury)
• Marcus Mariota starts for Washington
• Eagles have won 4 straight
• 68% win probability per ESPN's FPI

With Daniels out, this line should probably be higher. The Commanders' offense runs through their rookie QB, and without him, they're a shell of themselves. Eagles -7 feels like the right side.

Saturday Night: Packers vs Bears

Line: Packers -1.5 | Total: 46.5

A rivalry game with playoff implications for Green Bay. The Packers need wins to stay in the hunt, and the Bears... well, the Bears are playing out the string.

Injury watch:

• Josh Jacobs (questionable)
• Christian Watson (shoulder, limited practice)
• Rome Odunze (foot) — may not play for Chicago

The Bears are a mess at receiver. If Odunze can't go, their offense is severely limited. Packers -1.5 in a division rivalry feels like a gift.

Sunday Afternoon: Bills vs Browns

Line: Bills -10.5 | Total: 41.5

This should be a bloodbath. Buffalo is rolling, Cleveland is tanking, and Josh Allen is playing like the MVP. The only question is whether the Bills cover a double-digit spread against a team with nothing to play for.

The concern: Trap game. The Bills might not take this seriously with the playoffs already locked up. But 10.5 is still a lot against a team this bad.

Lean: Bills -10.5, but don't bet the house.

Sunday Afternoon: Chiefs vs Titans

Line: Chiefs -3 | Total: 37.5

The first game of the Gardner Minshew era in Kansas City. And somehow, the Chiefs are STILL 3-point favorites on the road.

Here's the reality:

• Mahomes tore his ACL last week
• Rashee Rice is in concussion protocol
• The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs
• There's nothing to play for

Tennessee is also bad, but at least they have something to prove. The Titans should be the favorites here, not the dogs. Take the Titans +3 and fade the corpse of the Chiefs dynasty.

Sunday Afternoon: Steelers vs Lions

Line: Lions -7 | Total: 48

The game of the week, and it's got serious injury concerns on Pittsburgh's side.

Steelers injury report (yikes):

• TJ Watt (lung) — did not practice
• Zach Frazier (triceps) — did not practice
• Isaac Seumalo (triceps) — did not practice
• Nick Herbig (hamstring) — did not practice

TJ Watt has a LUNG injury. We don't even know what that means, but it sounds bad. If Watt can't go, the Steelers' pass rush takes a massive hit, and Detroit's offense will feast.

The play: This line might move depending on Watt's status. If he's out, Lions -7 is the play. If he plays, it's closer to a stay-away.

Sunday Night: Patriots vs Ravens

Line: Ravens -3 | Total: 48

The Ravens should handle this easily, but 3 points feels light for how much better Baltimore is. The Patriots are one of the worst teams in football, and the Ravens need wins for seeding.

Lean: Ravens -3, but shop for -2.5 if you can find it.

Monday Night: 49ers vs Colts

Line: 49ers -6.5 | Total: 46.5

San Francisco has won 4 straight. The Colts have lost 4 straight. The 49ers are fighting for a playoff spot while Indy is fighting for draft position.

The play: 49ers -6.5. The Niners are the better team and have more to play for.

The Bottom Line

Best bets for Week 16:

1. Eagles -7 vs Commanders
2. Titans +3 vs Chiefs (fade the post-Mahomes corpse)
3. Packers -1.5 vs Bears
4. Lions -7 vs Steelers (if Watt is out)

The Chiefs without Mahomes are not a 3-point favorite against anyone. That's the best value on the board. Everything else is about injury reports and motivation — track the news and adjust accordingly.

Good luck, degenerates. We're in the home stretch.