NFL Week 18 Sunday: 13 Games, Division Titles, Draft Picks
The NFL regular season finale features 13 Sunday games with playoff implications, tank battles, and massive spreads. Here's your betting guide.
By Sharp Money Mike
NFL Week 18 brings us 13 games on Sunday, and unlike most finales, almost every single one has something at stake. Division titles, playoff seeding, draft positioning—this is the good stuff, degenerates.
The Quick Hit
- What's on tap: 13 NFL games Sunday, SNF is Ravens-Steelers for AFC North
- The stakes: Multiple division titles, playoff seeding, draft order
- Sharp action: Ravens line has moved from -2.5 to -3.5
- Tank watch: Raiders one loss from #1 overall pick
Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Steelers
This is everything. The AFC North title and a playoff spot go to the winner. The loser watches from home.
Baltimore opened as 2.5-point road favorites and has climbed to -3.5 with sharp money hammering the Ravens. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 41.5, which tells you bettors expect a grind-it-out game.
The biggest question: is Lamar Jackson healthy? He missed last week with a back injury but is expected to return for this one. If Lamar is Lamar, the Ravens should handle business. If he's limited, Pittsburgh's defense can make this ugly.
The Ravens-Steelers matchup has all the makings of a classic. Rivalry game, winner-take-all, prime time. This is why we watch football.
Patriots vs Dolphins: The #1 Seed Scenario
New England is laying 9.5 to 10 points against Miami in a game that could determine the AFC's top seed. The Pats need to win and have the Broncos lose to the Chargers to clinch the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs.
Miami is mailing it in, but double-digit spreads in the NFL are always scary. The total sits around 45.5-46.5, suggesting books expect New England to score comfortably.
Packers at Vikings: NFC North Implications
Green Bay (+6.5) visits Minnesota in a game where the Vikings have already clinched but the seeding matters. The total is set at 36.5—that's a low number that reflects the cold weather and the possibility Green Bay doesn't fully engage.
The Packers might rest key players if they're locked into their seed. If you see Malik Willis instead of Jordan Love, fade Green Bay hard.
Chiefs at Raiders: Tank Bowl With Style Points
Kansas City opened as 4.5-point road favorites and has climbed to -6.5 with public money on the Chiefs. The total is 35.5, which is hilariously low but probably accurate given how bad both offenses have been.
The Raiders are one loss away from clinching the #1 overall pick. If you believe in tanking (and in Vegas, they definitely do), laying 6.5 against a team trying to lose is a lot.
Texans vs Colts: AFC South Scenario
Houston is a massive -10.5 favorite and needs this win plus a Jaguars loss to the Titans to clinch the AFC South. That's a lot of chalk against a division rival, but Indy has nothing to play for except pride.
Jaguars vs Titans: The Other Side of the Texans Equation
Jacksonville is -12.5 at home against Tennessee. The Jags need to win and have Houston lose to steal the division. Given that Houston plays first, Jacksonville will know if they need to go all-out or if they're just playing for draft position.
This line feels too high. Laying 12.5 in an NFL game against any team is asking for trouble.
The Tank Bowl Subplot
Beyond the Raiders, several teams are positioning for draft picks. Games between bad teams late in the season are notorious for weird outcomes—players fighting for contracts, coaches fighting for jobs, front offices hoping for losses.
The Raiders' path to the #1 pick has been methodical. A loss Sunday seals it.
The Bottom Line
NFL Week 18 delivers maximum chaos. The Ravens-Steelers SNF game is the obvious headline, but there's value scattered throughout the slate. Big spreads in meaningless games are trap territory. The Ravens covering against a desperate Steelers team isn't guaranteed despite the line movement.
Bet smart, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the final week of the regular season. The playoffs start next week.