NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Guide: The Degens' Complete Breakdown
Six NFL playoff games. Spreads, totals, and the picks that matter. Steelers getting points, Jags as home dogs, and a Packers-Bears trilogy. Let's ride.
By Sharp Money Mike
The NFL playoffs are here, and Wild Card Weekend is absolutely stacked. Six games. Six chances to either build your bankroll or start the year in the red.
No pressure.
The Quick Hit
- What's happening: Six Wild Card games from Saturday to Monday
- Top plays: Steelers +3.5, Jaguars +1.5, Bears -1
- Biggest spread: Rams -10.5 at Carolina (yikes)
- Chaos factor: HIGH — this field is wide open
The Full Slate
Saturday, January 10
Rams (-10.5) at Panthers | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
The Panthers made the playoffs with a losing record. The seventh team in NFL history to pull that off. They "won" the NFC South by losing to Tampa in Week 18 and needing a three-way tiebreaker.
The Rams know they're better. Everyone knows they're better. Matthew Stafford threw 46 touchdowns this year. The Panthers have... vibes?
The play: This spread is massive for a playoff game. Carolina's at home. Weird things happen in January. If you're feeling frisky, the Panthers plus the points is a classic trap game fade. But the smart money says LA rolls.
Packers (-1.5) at Bears | 8 PM ET | Prime Video
Round three. The rubber match. These teams split the regular season — Packers won 28-21 at Lambeau in Week 14, Bears took the rematch 22-16 in OT at Soldier Field on Dec. 20.
Here's the thing: Green Bay is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. That's horrific. The Packers have lost four of their last five games overall.
Chicago? They're 6-1 at home in their last seven. The Bears are the trendy pick, and the line reflects it.
The play: Bears -1. Take the home team in a rivalry game where they've already proven they can win this matchup.
Sunday, January 11
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars | 1 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville is on an eight-game heater, averaging 33.6 points during that stretch. The Jags' offense finally clicked, and now they're hosting a Bills team whose passing game is... let's say "limited."
Buffalo has Josh Allen, but their receiving corps is depleted. Jacksonville has the NFL's best rush defense to slow down Allen and James Cook.
The play: Jaguars +1.5. This is the upset special of the weekend. Jacksonville at home with momentum versus a Bills team that could be ripe for a letdown.
49ers at Eagles (-3.5) | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
Shoutout to Kyle Shanahan's road teams. The Niners are 7-2 ATS away from home this season. Philly? A mediocre 4-4 ATS at the Linc.
San Francisco won six straight before losing a defensive battle to Seattle. They've been one of the most resilient teams in football all year.
The play: 49ers +3.5. The Eagles have shown cracks all season. Getting more than a field goal with a proven playoff team is value.
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5) | 8 PM ET | NBC
Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. The Patriots went 14-3 after going 4-13 last year — tied for the best year-over-year improvement in NFL history.
This is Mike Vrabel's team now. New England is built different.
The play: Patriots -3.5. Lay the points with the home team that's legitimately good again.
Monday, January 12
Texans (-2.5) at Steelers | 8 PM ET | ABC/ESPN
Pittsburgh won the AFC North on the final play of the regular season when Baltimore missed a field goal. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Houston hasn't covered in two of their last three. The Texans are the better team on paper, but "on paper" doesn't account for playoff Mike Tomlin.
The play: Steelers +2.5. This is the pick of the weekend. Pittsburgh at home, getting points, in a playoff game under the lights? Sign me up.
The Parlay Degen Play
If you're feeling absolutely reckless (and let's be honest, you are):
- Bears -1
- Jaguars +1.5
- Steelers +2.5
- 49ers +3.5
That's a four-leg underdog/home team parlay that pays around 12-1. You're betting on chaos, rivalry games, and home-field advantage.
It probably won't hit. But if it does? You're starting 2026 right.
The Bottom Line
Wild Card Weekend is unpredictable by nature. Half these teams weren't supposed to be here. The Seahawks and Broncos are on bye because they earned it, but the real entertainment is watching the chaos unfold in six games over three days.
Take the home dogs. Fade the public. Trust the trends.
And remember: it's only Week 1 of the playoffs. There's plenty of time to go broke before the Super Bowl.
Let's ride.