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Est. 2019

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Sports BettingMonday, January 5, 20265 min read

NFL Wild Card Lines Drop: Rams -10.5 Biggest Favorite

The playoff odds are live. Seattle has a bye, the Rams are double-digit favorites over Carolina, and the AFC looks absolutely chaotic.

By Sharp Money Mike

Est. 2019
THE RAGING DEGENERATE
Your Daily Dose of Gambling News
Sports Betting
NFL Wild Card Lines Drop: Rams -10.5 Biggest Favorite
The playoff odds are live. Seattle has a bye, the Rams are double-digit favorites over Carolina, and the AFC looks absolutely chaotic.
By Sharp Money Mike
ragingdegenerate.com
#NFL #playoffs #WildCard #bettinglines #DegenLife #GamblingNews

The NFL regular season is done. The dust has settled. And now the real fun begins: six Wild Card games, a billion-dollar betting handle, and one beautiful path to Super Bowl 60.

Let's break down every opening line and find the value.

The Quick Hit

  • What happened: Wild Card weekend lines dropped Sunday night after Week 18 wrapped
  • The damage: Rams -10.5 over Panthers is the biggest spread of the weekend
  • Why you should care: These lines will move fast once sharp money arrives Monday morning
  • The move: Bills at +1 in Jacksonville is screaming value right now

NFC Wild Card Games

Rams (-10.5) at Panthers | Saturday 4:30 PM ET

The Rams finished 12-5 in the toughest division in football. The Panthers squeaked in at 8-9. This line feels low, honestly.

Matthew Stafford threw for over 4,800 yards this season. Carolina's secondary has been getting torched since October. The Rams have been money all season and there's no reason to fade them now.

Los Angeles will want to make a statement. Expect them to come out firing.

Packers at Bears (-1.5) | Saturday 8:00 PM ET

The only divisional matchup on the board, and it's a coin flip. Green Bay is rolling with Clayton Tune after Jordan Love went down, but the rookie has shown flashes.

Chicago is 7-2 at home this season. That home-field advantage is real at Soldier Field in January. But betting on a backup QB in the playoffs isn't exactly smart money.

The total at 47.5 feels high for two teams that might grind this out.

Eagles (-3.5) vs 49ers | Sunday 4:30 PM ET

San Francisco is limping into the playoffs after getting demolished 13-3 by the Seahawks on Saturday. The 49ers had just 173 total yards in that game. Brock Purdy looked lost.

Philadelphia isn't the juggernaut they were last year, but they're healthy and rested. The Eagles covered in five of their last seven games. Getting 3.5 points at home feels like disrespect to a Niners team that's been to two NFC Championships in three years.

But right now, the sharps are taking Philly.

AFC Wild Card Games

Texans at Steelers | Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Houston ended the regular season on a nine-game winning streak. Nine straight. Their defense is playing lights-out football, and CJ Stroud looks like a future MVP.

The Steelers got in as the 4-seed after Baltimore fumbled the AFC North race. Pittsburgh's offense has been anemic, ranking 22nd in points per game.

Opening lines have Houston as a slight road favorite (-1.5), which is wild for a team traveling to the Steel City in January.

Bills (+1) at Jaguars | Sunday 4:30 PM ET

This is the line that has everyone talking. The Bills finished 12-5 and looked like Super Bowl contenders for most of the season. Jacksonville backed into the playoffs at 9-8 with one of the easiest schedules in the league.

Buffalo at +1 on the road feels like the sharpest play of Wild Card weekend. Josh Allen has been phenomenal, and the Jaguars' defense has massive holes in the secondary.

Some books already moved this to Bills -1. If you can still get Buffalo as a dog, smash it.

Chargers at Patriots (-3.5) | Sunday 8:00 PM ET

Drake Maye is the likely MVP and the Patriots are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They finished 14-3 with the 2-seed in the AFC.

The Chargers are here because the conference was weak, not because they're a great team. Justin Herbert sat out Week 18, and even when healthy, LA's offense has been inconsistent.

New England should roll. The question is whether to lay the 3.5 or take the ML.

Sharp Money Indicators

Early money has been on:

  • Rams -10.5: Public is fading Carolina, and sharps agree
  • Bills +1: Everyone wants Buffalo before this line flips
  • Under 47.5 Packers-Bears: Two cold-weather teams with backup QB drama

The line movements to watch this week will tell us where the real money is going. By Wednesday, these numbers could look completely different.

Super Bowl 60 Odds Update

The Seahawks are now +340 favorites to win it all after clinching the NFC's top seed. The Broncos (+650) lead the AFC with home-field advantage. Denver's only loss in the second half of the season was a fluky overtime game against the Chargers.

The Patriots at +1100 feel like massive value for a team that just went 14-3 with an MVP candidate at quarterback.

The Bottom Line

Wild Card weekend is the best weekend in sports betting. Six games, massive handles, and lines that are still soft enough to find value.

The plays right now: Bills +1 (before it flips), Rams team total over, and the under in Chicago.

Lock in your positions early. The sharps are coming.