The Green Bay Packers are treating Week 18 exactly how they should: as a glorified preseason game. Jordan Love is sitting. Josh Jacobs is sitting. Half the starters are sitting. And third-string quarterback Clayton Tune is about to make his first NFL start.

Minnesota is favored by 9.5 points, and honestly, that might not be enough.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Packers resting starters with playoff seeding locked at #7
• The damage: Vikings -9.5, total 36.5, Minnesota ML around -450
• Why you should care: This line is moving for a reason—Green Bay is punting
• The move: Hammer the under 36.5 with everything you've got

Who the Hell is Clayton Tune?

Clayton Tune was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2023 NFL Draft—the last pick, selected with pick 259. He played at Houston, where he threw for over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final season.

He's got an arm. He's got some moxie. He's also never taken a regular-season NFL snap in a game that matters.

Backup Malik Willis is dealing with injuries and is listed as questionable, which pushed Tune into the starting role. Head coach Matt LaFleur made it clear this week: Love is cleared from his concussion, but there's no reason to risk him.

Smart coaching. Brutal for bettors who wanted to see an actual football game.

The Vikings' Motivation

Minnesota is 8-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, but they're playing for something: a 9-8 finish after an ugly 4-8 stretch earlier this season.

J.J. McCarthy is expected to start at quarterback after recovering from his own injury issues. He's been inconsistent, but he's still better than a third-stringer making his debut.

The Vikings' defense should feast on Tune. They've been playing well down the stretch, and an inexperienced quarterback with no chemistry with the starting receivers is exactly what they want to see.

The Line Movement

This opened at Vikings -7 and has climbed to -9.5. The total opened at 39 and has dropped to 36.5. The market is screaming: this is going to be ugly, low-scoring, and dominated by defenses.

When you see a total drop three points in a few days, you follow that steam. The sharp money is pounding the under, and for good reason.

Why the Under is the Lock

Let's think about this logically:

• Green Bay's starting QB, RB1, and several key starters are out
• Clayton Tune has never started an NFL game
• The Packers' offensive game plan will be vanilla as hell
• Minnesota's offense with McCarthy has been conservative
• Neither team has anything real to play for beyond pride

This game is going to look like a Week 3 preseason affair. Expect running plays up the middle, clock management, and maybe a combined total of four touchdowns.

The Packers already clinched their playoff spot when the Vikings beat the Lions on Christmas. Now they're just trying to get healthy for the Wild Card round.

The Betting Angles

Under 36.5 (-110): This is the lock of the day. Neither offense is capable of putting up points in this matchup. Expect a final score in the 17-10 range.

Vikings -9.5 (-110): Minnesota is the better team, and they're actually trying. Nine and a half is a lot, but Green Bay's offensive limitations make a double-digit loss entirely possible.

No Touchdowns for Packers in First Half (+200): This is a longshot worth a sprinkle. Tune might not even see the red zone in the first 30 minutes.

The Bigger Picture

This game doesn't matter for Green Bay. It barely matters for Minnesota. But for Clayton Tune, this is the biggest moment of his football life.

How he performs might determine whether he has an NFL future or gets cut in training camp. That pressure could lead to mistakes, which is exactly what the Vikings want.

The Bottom Line

Take the under 36.5 and don't think twice. This game is going to be a snoozefest, and anyone betting the over is just throwing money away.

Vikings 20, Packers 10. Minnesota covers, the under hits by a mile, and we all move on to the playoff games that actually matter.