The WM Phoenix Open kicks off today at TPC Scottsdale, and for the first time since 2021, Brooks Koepka is in the field. The guy left for Saudi money, watched LIV Golf crater, and came crawling back through the Returning Members Program. Welcome home, Brooks. The 16th hole missed you.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Phoenix Open starts today with Scheffler +220, Koepka back from LIV at +4500
• The damage: 156-player field at TPC Scottsdale, one of the biggest betting events on the PGA calendar
• Why you should care: Koepka won here in 2015 and 2021—this course fits his game
• The move: Scheffler is the obvious favorite, but the value plays are further down the board

Koepka's Comeback Tour

Koepka's return to the PGA Tour has been one of the better storylines in golf this year. He left for LIV in 2022 and spent four years chasing Saudi riches while his game quietly eroded without the pressure of facing the world's best every week. He came back through the Returning Member Program, citing family reasons for the decision, and got a surprisingly warm reception at the Farmers Insurance Open last week.

The results? Less warm. A T-56 finish at Torrey Pines isn't exactly setting the world on fire. But TPC Scottsdale is different for Koepka. He won here twice, and in his own words, "this golf course suits my eye." At +4500, he's a pure lottery ticket—but the kind of lottery ticket that's actually cashed before.

Scheffler at +220: Too Short?

Scottie Scheffler enters as the overwhelming favorite at +220, and honestly, that price is deserved. The man won nine times in 2024-2025 and has been the best player on the planet for two years running. At TPC Scottsdale, the combination of power off the tee and precision with irons plays perfectly to his strengths.

The problem with betting Scheffler in a 156-player field? Even the best golfer in the world wins maybe 15-20% of the time. You're laying -220 implied probability on a guy who has roughly a 1-in-5 shot. The math doesn't love it unless you're rolling him into props or matchup bets.

Where's the Value?

The betting board offers some intriguing longshots:

Xander Schauffele (+1900) — Consistently elite and loves desert golf. He's been hovering around the top of leaderboards all year and +1900 offers real upside.

Cameron Young (+2000) — The ball-striking numbers are there, and TPC Scottsdale rewards aggressive play off the tee.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) — Has been playing some of the best golf of his career and the Super Bowl isn't the only big event worth betting on this week.

Jordan Spieth (+5200) — If you believe in redemption arcs and nostalgic bets, Spieth at this price is a fun stab.

The 16th Hole Factor

TPC Scottsdale's par-3 16th is the most electric hole in golf. The stadium seating holds 20,000 screaming fans, and every tee shot either gets a standing ovation or a chorus of boos. It's the one hole in professional golf that feels like a football stadium.

For bettors, the 16th creates opportunities. Players who thrive in chaotic environments tend to outperform here. Players who need library silence to focus? They struggle. Koepka, for all his faults, is a showman who feeds off big crowds. Scheffler handles it like a machine.

The Bottom Line

The Phoenix Open is the most bet-friendly non-major on the PGA Tour calendar. Scheffler deserves his spot as favorite, but the value lives in the +2000 to +5000 range where talented players can steal a win that would make any degen's week. And Koepka at +4500? Sometimes the best stories are the comeback stories. Just don't bet the mortgage on it.