One game. Division title. Playoff berth. Everything on the line.

The Ravens and Steelers play Sunday Night Football for all the marbles, and the loser is going home for the offseason.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Ravens (8-8) at Steelers (9-7) on Sunday Night Football, 8:20 PM ET
• The damage: Ravens -3.5, O/U 41.5
• Why you should care: Winner takes the AFC North; loser misses the playoffs
• The move: Lamar's back, but home dogs in Week 18 are historically live

How Did We Get Here?

Neither team wanted this. Both spent the second half of the season finding creative ways to lose winnable games, and now they're stuck in a win-or-go-home scenario neither should be facing.

The Ravens were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders. Lamar Jackson was in the MVP conversation for the first eight weeks. Then the injuries hit, the losses piled up, and suddenly 8-8 with everything riding on the finale.

The Steelers? Same story, different flavor. They had the division locked up at one point and then proceeded to lose four of their last five. Now they're 9-7 and praying home-field advantage matters.

Lamar's Status Is Everything

Jackson missed last week with a back injury. The Ravens turned to Derrick Henry, and the man ran for 216 yards and four touchdowns against Green Bay. It was a reminder that even without Lamar, this offense can function.

But Lamar's expected back for Sunday night. He practiced this week and is listed as questionable, which in Lamar terms usually means he's playing.

The line tells the story. Baltimore opened at -2.5 and has moved to -3.5 as confidence in Jackson's return grows. If he sits, this line crashes to a pick 'em or worse.

Tomlin as a Home Dog

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. He's also got a track record as a home underdog that sharps respect.

Since Tomlin became coach in 2007, the Steelers are one of the most profitable ATS home underdog plays in the league. They cover at an absurd clip in these spots, usually because the market underestimates their defensive intensity and crowd factor.

Pittsburgh's defense has T.J. Watt coming back from a chest injury (questionable but expected to play). Their run defense will be tested by Henry, but if they can limit the damage and force Baltimore into third-and-longs, Lamar's back might become a factor.

The Suspension Factor

DK Metcalf is serving a two-game suspension and is ineligible for Sunday's game. Wait—wrong team. The Steelers are without their... actually, they're relatively healthy on offense.

The bigger concern is whether Russell Wilson has anything left. The Steelers' passing game has been inconsistent, and against a Ravens secondary that's been solid when healthy, Wilson needs to hit his shots.

Sharp Money Says...

The line movement from -2.5 to -3.5 indicates sharp action on Baltimore. The public will be heavy on the Steelers as the home team in a primetime spot.

The total opened at 43.5 and has dropped to 41.5. Both defenses are capable of making this ugly, and neither offense has been consistent enough to expect a shootout.

If you're taking the Steelers, you're betting on Tomlin's home underdog magic and a gritty defensive effort. If you're taking the Ravens, you're betting on Lamar being healthy enough to make plays and Derrick Henry grinding Pittsburgh into the ground.

The Bottom Line

This is what the NFL is supposed to be—two teams, one game, winner takes all. The Ravens have more talent. The Steelers have home field and a coach who lives for these moments. Baltimore -3.5 is the sharper side, but the under at 41.5 might be the safest play on the board. Expect a physical, defensive battle where the team that makes fewer mistakes wins the AFC North.