Remember when Seattle traded Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold? Remember all the jokes? The hot takes about how the Seahawks had lost their minds? Yeah, about that.

Darnold and the Seahawks host San Francisco on Saturday night as seven-point favorites. Seattle has won 14 games for the first time in franchise history. The Raiders, who received Geno Smith in that trade, are picking first overall. Someone owes Darnold an apology. Actually, a lot of people do.

The Quick Hit

• Game: 49ers at Seahawks, Saturday 8:00 PM ET
• Spread: Seattle -7, O/U 45.5
• The story: Darnold has transformed from bust to franchise quarterback
• The angle: This is a revenge game against everyone who wrote him off

The Third Overall Pick's Journey

Sam Darnold was the third overall pick in 2018. The Jets believed he was their franchise savior. Within three years, he was traded to Carolina for a sixth-round pick. A sixth-rounder. That's what his value had become—less than a late-round flyer.

Carolina didn't work out. Minnesota used him as a bridge quarterback while they developed their young guys. At 27, Darnold was firmly in the "career backup" category, the kind of player who cashes solid paychecks to hold a clipboard and mentor rookies.

Then Seattle called.

The Seahawks had a decision to make. Geno Smith had played well but wasn't getting younger. The team believed in their system and coaching staff more than any individual quarterback. So they made the move that everyone mocked—shipping Geno to Vegas for picks and signing Darnold to start.

The Results Don't Lie

Fourteen wins. A seven-game winning streak to close the season. The NFC's top seed. A home playoff game against an inferior opponent. However you want to measure it, the Darnold gamble paid off.

He's not putting up MVP numbers. His stat line won't blow you away. But Darnold is making plays when they matter, protecting the football, and executing Seattle's offensive system at a high level. Sometimes that's enough—and when paired with this defense, it's been more than enough.

The Week 18 demolition of the 49ers showed exactly what this Seahawks team is. They held San Francisco to three points. Darnold managed the game, hit his throws when he needed to, and didn't put the defense in bad spots. That's winning football.

The 49ers Matchup

San Francisco is dealing with injuries. George Kittle is out with an Achilles issue, and the offensive line has been patched together with duct tape and prayers. In two games against Seattle this year, the 49ers have scored a combined 20 points. Twenty. Against a divisional rival they've historically dominated.

The betting market has adjusted accordingly. Seattle moved from -6.5 to -7.5 before settling at -7. The sharps are comfortable laying a full touchdown with the home team, which tells you what they think about San Francisco's chances without their best weapon.

For Darnold, this is another opportunity to stick it to the doubters. Every analyst who called him a bust. Every Jets fan who watched him fail in New York. Every person who said Seattle made a mistake. Saturday night is his chance to put the exclamation point on an incredible season.

The Betting Perspective

Seahawks -7 is the play if you believe what we've seen all season is real. Seattle's defense has been stifling, and the 49ers' offense without Kittle looks nothing like the unit that reached the Super Bowl two years ago.

The under at 45.5 also looks good. Both meetings this year combined for 46 total points. Neither offense has lit up the other, and Seattle's defense seems to have San Francisco's number.

If you want to get creative, look at Darnold props. His rushing yards over has hit at a decent clip this year as he's become more comfortable extending plays with his legs. In a game where the passing attack might be conservative, he could pick up chunk yardage scrambling.

The Bottom Line

Sam Darnold isn't a Hall of Famer. He might not even be a Pro Bowler. But he's exactly what Seattle needed—a competent, confident quarterback who takes care of the ball and lets the defense carry the load.

Saturday's game against San Francisco is the next chapter in his redemption arc. Win this one, and the Seahawks are a game away from the Super Bowl. For a player who was discarded by two franchises, that's about as good as revenge gets.

Seattle -7. Under 45.5. Darnold MVP for the three-hour window of the game. Let's ride.