This is what Week 18 should look like. Two division rivals, both 12-4 or better, winner take all for the NFC's top seed. The Seattle Seahawks visit the San Francisco 49ers Saturday night with everything on the line.

And somehow, the road team is favored.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Seahawks (13-3) and 49ers (12-4) square off for NFC West title and #1 seed
• The damage: Seattle -2.5, total 47.5, Seahawks ML around -140
• Why you should care: Winner gets bye, home field through NFC playoffs
• The move: Seahawks ML feels like the right side given San Francisco's injury situation

Why Seattle Is Favored on the Road

The Seahawks are 7-1 straight up and against the spread on the road this season. That's not a typo. Seattle has been a wagon away from Lumen Field, and Sam Darnold has been the resurrection story of the century.

Darnold ranks fifth in the league in passing grade per PFF. He's been sharp, decisive, and nothing like the guy who saw ghosts in New York. Seattle's offense is averaging 29.4 points per game, second in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are limping. They've lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to season-ending injuries, and it shows. San Francisco ranks 29th in pass-rush win rate and dead last in sacks. Their defense, which was supposed to be the backbone of this team, has been getting gashed.

The Line Movement

Oddsmakers opened Seattle around -2, and it's ticked up slightly to -2.5 at most books. The total opened at 48 and has dipped to 47.5, suggesting the market expects a defensive battle despite what the injury reports suggest.

The Seahawks lead the all-time series 31-24, but here's the kicker: San Francisco has won seven of the last eight meetings. Seattle is 0-6 in its last six trips to Levi's Stadium.

History says fade the Seahawks. The current rosters say Seattle is the better team right now.

Key Injuries to Monitor

George Kittle (ankle) is questionable for San Francisco. If he's limited or out, that's a massive blow to an offense that already lost Christian McCaffrey earlier this season.

For Seattle, the biggest concern is fatigue. They've been grinding through a brutal stretch, and playing Saturday after a short week could show up in the second half.

Sharp Money vs. Public Action

The public is split on this one, which is rare for a primetime game of this magnitude. Sharp action has leaned slightly toward Seattle, particularly on the moneyline. When you see the road team get steamed in a game this big, it usually means something.

The 49ers have had their issues all season, but they've won six straight heading into this game. Momentum matters. But so does not having your two best defensive players.

The Betting Angles

Seahawks ML (-140): The moneyline is the play here. You're laying less than a field goal's worth of juice to back the better team with the healthier roster. Seattle's road dominance is real.

Over 47.5 (-110): Both teams score. The 49ers' defense has been giving up points without Bosa and Warner. Seattle's offense doesn't slow down for anyone. The over is 6-2 in San Francisco's last eight games.

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 TD Passes (+120): Darnold has thrown multiple touchdowns in 11 of 16 games. Against a pass rush that can't get home, he'll have time to find receivers downfield.

The Game Script

Seattle comes out aggressive, knowing they can push the 49ers' makeshift defensive line around. San Francisco counters with quick-hitting plays to neutralize the pass rush. This one stays close through three quarters before the Seahawks pull away in the fourth when depth becomes a factor.

The line movement earlier this week suggested sharp money was waiting to see injury reports. Now that we know the 49ers' defensive stars are done, the path to a Seattle cover is clearer.

The Bottom Line

The Seahawks are the better team right now, and they've earned that -2.5 line. San Francisco's home-field advantage is real, but it's hard to trust a defense that's missing its two best players in a game of this magnitude.

Take Seattle -2.5, or if you want to play it safe, grab the moneyline and don't sweat a potential three-point loss.

Seahawks 27, 49ers 23. Seattle celebrates the NFC's top seed on San Francisco's home turf.