Sony Open Golf: Henley Leads the Board at +1100
The PGA Tour finally gets rolling at Waialae after The Sentry got cancelled. Russell Henley is the favorite, but this field is wide open for degenerates who do their homework.
By Sharp Money Mike
The 2026 PGA Tour season officially starts today at the Sony Open in Hawaii after The Sentry at Kapalua got cancelled due to drought conditions on Maui. That means a stacked field, fresh betting markets, and four days of action from Waialae Country Club in Honolulu.
The Quick Hit
- What happened: Sony Open becomes the de facto 2026 season opener after The Sentry cancellation
- The damage: Russell Henley leads the betting board at +1100
- Why you should care: Wide-open field means longshot value everywhere
- The field: 120 players including Nick Taylor defending his title
The Favorites Board
The betting market has Russell Henley as the clear favorite, which makes sense. Five-time PGA Tour winner, 2025 Ryder Cup participant, and he knows how to handle the wind at Waialae.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Russell Henley | +1100 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1700 |
| Ben Griffin | +1700 |
| J.J. Spaun | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +2000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +2200 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2500 |
| Harry Hall | +2500 |
| Nick Taylor | +2700 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 |
The Sharp Angles
J.J. Spaun at +1800 is interesting. This guy had a historic 2025—won his first major at the U.S. Open at Oakmont, finished runner-up at The Players Championship and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He's not a household name, but he's playing elite golf.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) makes his 13th Sony Open appearance. The Japanese legend owns 11 career Tour victories and just won the Hero World Challenge in December. When Hideki is dialed in, he's as good as anyone.
Si Woo Kim (+2000) won this event in 2023 and finished 4th on debut back in 2016. Course form matters in golf betting, and Kim clearly likes Waialae.
The Longshot Corner
Jordan Spieth at +4500 is intriguing if you believe the former world number one can find something. He's been struggling, but this is a course where ball-striking matters less than creativity around the greens. Spieth's short game has always been elite.
For the true degenerates, any player in the 50/1 to 100/1 range with solid course history deserves a look. This is one of those events where the favorite wins about once every four years.
Course Breakdown: Waialae Country Club
Waialae is a par-70 that plays around 7,000 yards, but the wind is the real defense. When the trades kick up in the afternoon, this course gets tricky fast.
Key factors for this week:
- Accuracy off the tee: Waialae's fairways aren't generous
- Wind management: Players who can flight it both ways have an edge
- Putting on Bermuda: Different grass, different read than mainland courses
- Par-5 scoring: Three par-5s offer birdie opportunities
Defending Champ Nick Taylor
Nick Taylor (+2700) won here last year and knows how to play in Hawaii. Canadian players have historically done well at the Sony Open—something about the laid-back atmosphere maybe. Taylor's not a sexy pick, but defending champions at course-specific events deserve respect.
Tournament Format
The Sony Open runs Thursday through Sunday with a 36-hole cut to the top 65 and ties. First-round leaders rarely hold on here—the weekend scoring tends to get aggressive. Keep that in mind if you're betting matchups or positioning markets.
The Bottom Line
This field is wide open enough that anyone in the top 30 of the betting board has a realistic shot. Russell Henley deserves his spot as favorite, but +1100 in a 120-player field doesn't offer huge value. The sweet spot is probably the +1800 to +2500 range where you're getting names like Spaun, Morikawa, and Kim at prices that pay if they get hot. Golf betting rewards homework more than any other sport. Do yours.