We're down to the final four, and the Super Bowl LX picture is coming into focus. The Seahawks are slight favorites, the Patriots are on a redemption tour, the Rams refuse to die, and the Broncos... well, the Broncos are starting Jarrett Stidham. Let's talk odds.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Conference Championship matchups are set for Sunday
• The damage: Seahawks +145, Rams +230, Patriots +250, Broncos +1100
• Why you should care: Three-team race with one massive longshot
• The move: If you believe in Stidham, +1100 is sitting there waiting

Current Super Bowl LX Odds

According to DraftKings Sportsbook:

The Seahawks have separated from the pack thanks to their demolition job on the 49ers—a 41-6 beatdown that announced Seattle as the team to beat in the NFC. But both the Rams and Patriots are in striking distance.

Then there's Denver.

The Broncos Situation

Let's address the elephant in the room. Before Bo Nix's ankle injury, the Broncos were +700 to win the Super Bowl. That was after they knocked off Buffalo in overtime. Then came the news that Nix needs season-ending surgery, and suddenly Jarrett Stidham is starting in the AFC Championship.

The result? Denver's odds crashed to +1100. That's a massive move, and it reflects the reality that Stidham hasn't started an NFL game since 2023 and has only four career starts total. He's about to set the record for fewest career starts by any starting quarterback in conference championship history.

The Broncos could also become the biggest home underdog in NFL conference championship game history—they opened at +5.5 against the Patriots. For context on how the Stidham situation has moved the lines, the Broncos were originally -1.5 favorites on lookahead lines.

The NFC Race

The Seahawks and Rams will meet for the third time this season in the NFC Championship. These NFC West rivals split the regular-season series:

• Week 11: Rams 21, Seahawks 19 (LA)
• Week 16: Seahawks 38, Rams 37 OT (Seattle)

Seattle enters riding an eight-game winning streak. They crushed the 49ers twice to close the season—13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the top seed, then 41-6 in the divisional round in what can only be described as a murder.

The Rams? They've won three consecutive elimination games after that Week 16 loss. Matthew Stafford has been vintage Stafford in the playoffs, though he did throw four picks against Seattle in that regular-season loss.

The Patriots Angle

Mike Vrabel's turnaround in New England has been remarkable. The Patriots won a combined eight games across the past two seasons. Now they're one win from the Super Bowl.

New England is 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. Drake Maye has been a revelation at quarterback, and the defense—currently allowing the fewest points per game in the playoffs—has been suffocating.

The Pats are -5 road favorites in Denver, which feels both too much and not enough depending on your Stidham beliefs.

Sharp Money vs. Public Money

The sharps have been active on Conference Championship weekend. The Patriots opened -5.5 against Denver and immediately got bet down to -5, suggesting some confidence in the Broncos. But that could also be value shopping on a bad number.

For the NFC game, Seattle opened -2.5 and has climbed to -3 at some books. The public loves the narrative of the Seahawks' dominance, but sharp action has been mixed.

The Bottom Line

This is a three-horse Super Bowl race with a moonshot fourth option. The Seahawks have the clearest path—they've been the best team in football for two months. The Rams are battle-tested underdogs with championship experience. The Patriots have the defense and the coach.

And the Broncos have Jarrett Stidham.

If you're looking for value, +1100 on Denver is either the trap of the century or the steal of the playoffs. They're at home, they have a great defense, and sometimes backup quarterbacks catch lightning in a bottle.

But let's be real: you're probably taking the Seahawks and just accepting the juice. Sometimes the obvious play is the right play.

Conference Championships are Sunday. Place your bets accordingly.