The Super Bowl prop market is a $200+ million ocean of action, and the sharps are already making their moves. While the public loads up on first touchdown scorers and anytime TD props, professional bettors are quietly hammering the unders and the unders alone.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Sharp money is flooding specific Super Bowl LX prop markets
• The damage: Multiple lines have already moved 15-20 cents since opening
• Why you should care: When sharps move, the numbers change fast—act accordingly
• The move: Under props on receiving totals are where the smart money is landing

The Sharp Philosophy

Here's what you need to understand about professional Super Bowl prop betting: the sharps almost always bet on things NOT to happen. If it's a Yes/No prop, they're on No. If it's an Over/Under prop, they lean into the Under.

Why? Because the public loves action. They want touchdowns, big plays, and the over on everything. Sportsbooks know this and shade their lines accordingly. That creates value on the under side for anyone willing to fade the squares.

Where the Money Is Moving

2-Point Conversion Attempt: NO (-160)

The SuperBook took immediate sharp action Wednesday night on No -140 and moved to No -160. The thinking here is simple—both the Seahawks and Patriots have elite kickers and conservative offensive philosophies. Neither Pete Carroll nor Drake Maye's coaching staff is looking to get cute in the biggest game of the year.

"A lot of times, we don't mind taking those bets, because we know the public will be all over the other side, betting on Yes," said SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon.

Mack Hollins Receptions: UNDER 2.5

Patriots wideout Mack Hollins has an Over/Under of 2.5 receptions at The SuperBook. Professional bettor Bill Krackomberger jumped on the under right after it opened Wednesday night.

Hollins is a depth piece, not a featured target. With DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson all higher on the target tree, expecting Hollins to see meaningful volume is wishful thinking.

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions: MIXED ACTION

This one's interesting. The SuperBook opened Stevenson's reception count at Over/Under 2.5, and it drew sharp bets on BOTH sides.

"We took a sharp bet at Over 2.5 (-140), moved to Over 2.5 (-160), and then took a sharp bet on Under 2.5 (+140). So we're back where we started," Degnon said.

When sharps are split, the number is probably right. This one's a pass.

TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards: UNDER 3.5

Henderson opened with an Over/Under of 4.5 receiving yards. After a $2,000 sharp bet on the under, it's now sitting at 3.5.

"Henderson didn't play a lot last week. Plus, his Over/Under on catches is 0.5. At a number as low as 4.5 yards, you're kind of betting on no catches," Degnon explained.

This is the sharp playbook in action—find props where the public inflates one side, then hammer the other.

The Public Favorites

Meanwhile, here's where the squares are loading up:

Kenneth Walker III is the +400 favorite to score the first TD. Jaxon Smith-Njigba sits at +600 second choice. These are fine bets if you want action, but understand you're betting with the public, not against them.

The JSN liability story we covered shows just how much money is flowing to the Seahawks receiver. Books are sweating him hard.

Timing Matters

If you're trying to get the best numbers, pay attention to early prop movement in the 12-24 hours after sportsbooks release markets. Bookmakers adjust quickly to sharp opinions. By the time Super Bowl Sunday arrives, you're likely getting the worst of the number on anything popular.

The biggest bets we tracked yesterday showed where the whales are positioned. The sharp prop action tells you where the grinders are making their living.

The Bottom Line

Super Bowl props are entertainment for most bettors, and that's fine. But if you want to bet like a professional, start looking at the unders. Start looking at the "No" side of Yes/No props. Start looking at the players who the public doesn't care about.

That's where the edge lives. That's where sharps make their money. And that's where the books are most vulnerable.

Seahawks vs Patriots. February 8. 6:30 PM ET. Get your prop bets in early, and maybe—just maybe—fade the crowd.