Manchester City are 4-6 favorites. Tottenham are 10-3 underdogs. And yet Pep Guardiola has lost more Premier League games to Spurs than any other opponent.

Make it make sense.

Sunday's Super Sunday matchup at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium features one of the more interesting betting lines of the weekend. City should win—they're the better team on paper—but this fixture has bitten Pep so many times that you have to at least consider the other side.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Spurs host City in Super Sunday Premier League action
• The damage: Man City 4-6, Draw 3-1, Tottenham 10-3
• Why you should care: Pep is 8-loss Tottenham, more than any other PL opponent
• The move: Over 0.5 goals at 50/1 promo (if you can get it)

The Historical Angle

Pep Guardiola's record against Tottenham in the Premier League is genuinely strange. The man who has dominated English football for nearly a decade has lost more games to Spurs than to anyone else. Not Liverpool. Not United. Tottenham.

These teams haven't played a goalless draw in 35 matches dating back over 15 years. Whatever else happens Sunday, there will be goals. Sky Bet is offering new customers 50/1 on over 0.5 goals, which is essentially free money if you can grab it.

The under has no shot here. Both teams score, both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, and the history of this fixture screams entertaining chaos.

Current Form Check

Spurs have won just 2 of their last 14 league games. That's atrocious form for a club with these expectations. They're sliding toward mid-table obscurity, and the fans are restless.

City, meanwhile, have won to nil on three of their last four visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Erling Haaland and company know how to exploit Spurs' defensive issues, and they've done it repeatedly.

On paper, City should roll. The -150 price reflects that. But Tottenham at home, with the historical weirdness of this fixture, makes the 10-3 at least worth a look as a small flier.

Player Props Worth Watching

Dominic Solanke to score at 11-4 is getting some love. The striker has goals in back-to-back games and tends to show up against bigger opponents. If Spurs are going to nick something here, Solanke is probably involved.

Antoine Semenyo has scored five goals in his last eight Premier League appearances—worth monitoring if you're building an anytime scorer parlay.

The Bottom Line

City should win. The form says City. The talent says City. But this fixture has been Pep's kryptonite for years, and Tottenham at home always has a puncher's chance. The play is probably the over on goals—this game never finishes 1-0—but if you want to throw a few bucks on Spurs at 10-3, history says weirder things have happened in this matchup.