UNLV Student and Poker Pros Split $18.7M Survivor
Fernanda Carriedo, 25, becomes first woman to win Circa Survivor, splitting $18.7M prize pool with four others. Each winner takes home $3.74M.
By Vegas Vic
Twenty-five years old. Nursing student at UNLV. First woman to ever win Circa Survivor. And now, $3.74 million richer.
Fernanda Carriedo just put herself into Vegas gambling legend status, and she did it by picking the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 when everyone else was zigging.
The Quick Hit
- What happened: Five entries survived all 20 weeks to split $18.7M Circa Survivor prize
- The damage: $3,743,600 per winner from a $1,000 entry pool
- Why you should care: Record 18,718 entries. Record prize pool. Historic first female winner.
- The move: Befriend a poker pro who runs a Survivor analysis website, apparently
The Road to $3.74 Million
Circa Survivor is the ultimate NFL pick 'em challenge. You pick one team to win straight-up each week, but you can only use each team once all season. Miss one pick? You're out. Make it through all 20 weeks without a loss? You split the pot with whoever else is standing.
This year started with 18,718 entries at $1,000 each—a record prize pool of $18,718,000.
By Thanksgiving week, only 900 entries remained. Then Black Friday happened.
The Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend was the turning point. Every favorite lost on those two days. The Bears beating the Eagles as 7-point underdogs on Black Friday slashed the field from 900 to just 49 survivors. Carriedo was one of them—she had the Bears.
The Final Week
Coming into Week 18, six entries remained. The Vikings were taking on a Packers team that had nothing to play for. Minnesota cruised 16-3.
Carriedo and one other entry had the Vikings. Both survived.
"I'll be a Vikings fan for life," Carriedo told reporters after the contest ended. "It's a huge honor. I'm so appreciative of this opportunity to have been one of the first two women to have won this competition."
The Secret Sauce
Here's the thing about Carriedo's win: she had help. The official entry was under her name (listed as "Juicy K"), but she partnered with professional poker player Jason Somerville and Gabe Patgorski—the guys behind Survivor Atlas, a website dedicated to analyzing NFL survivor pools.
This isn't cheating or angle-shooting. It's how the game is played at the highest level. The big Survivor pools are full of syndicates, professional bettors, and poker players who understand game theory and edge-finding better than casual fans.
Carriedo contributed financially, Somerville and Patgorski contributed analysis, and they split whatever came back. Smart business all around.
Vegas History
Circa Survivor has become one of the most prestigious betting contests in the world. Owner Derek Stevens created it to be a no-rake, winner-take-all spectacle that brings degenerates to downtown Vegas every Sunday.
This year's $18.7M prize pool is the largest in the contest's history. Five entries finishing undefeated and splitting means each winner takes home more than most people will earn in their entire working lives.
Carriedo is now officially part of Vegas lore. A 25-year-old nursing student who teamed up with poker pros and outlasted 18,713 other entries across 20 weeks of NFL football.
The Bottom Line
We talk a lot about big parlay winners and jackpot hits, but there's something special about a Survivor win. This isn't luck hitting at the right moment—this is 20 consecutive correct decisions over five months of football.
Carriedo had the Black Friday Bears. She had the Week 18 Vikings. She had the discipline to not second-guess her strategy when things got tight.
$3.74 million. First female winner. At 25 years old.
The legend of Fernanda Carriedo has officially begun.