If you want to know where the smart money is going, follow the line movement.

Week 17 has seen some significant shifts, with sharp bettors loading up on underdogs and fading public favorites. The biggest movers? Patriots-Jets and Eagles-Bills — two games where the market has spoken loudly about perceived value.

The Quick Hit

• Biggest move: Patriots went from -4.5 to -3 despite being 12-3
• Marquee shift: Eagles at Bills moved from +3 to +2.5 — sharps on Philly
• The trend: Underdogs are getting love across the board
• What it means: Books are expecting a public-fading Sunday

Patriots at Jets: The Most Interesting Line of the Week

New England opened as 4.5-point favorites at home against the 3-12 Jets. Pretty standard line for a 12-3 team hosting a basement dweller, right?

Except the line has fallen to Patriots -3. That's a full 1.5 points of movement toward the Jets — a team that has won three games all season.

What do the sharps see?

Part of it is the rookie quarterback factor. The Jets are getting experience for their young signal-caller, and they've actually been competitive in spots. They're 8-7 against the spread this season and 4-4 ATS at home. That's better than their record suggests.

Part of it is the "look-ahead" factor. The Patriots have already clinched a playoff spot. Are they going to go all-out against a team that poses no threat? Or do they play it safe and rest key players?

Sharp money is betting on the latter. Take the Jets +3 if you want to side with the professionals.

Eagles at Bills: Sharps Love Philly

The Bills opened as 3-point favorites and the line has ticked down to -2.5. That half-point movement tells you smart money is on Philadelphia.

The reasons are clear:

1. The run game mismatch: Buffalo ranks 31st in rush defense EPA. Saquon Barkley is the best running back in football. The math is simple.

2. Eagles' underdog record: Philadelphia is 5-0 outright as underdogs since the start of last season. They thrive in this role.

3. Buffalo's ATS struggles: The Bills are just 7-8 against the spread this year. They win games but don't cover consistently.

If you're following the sharp money, you're taking Eagles +2.5 and probably sprinkling some on the moneyline.

Other Notable Movements

Bengals at Cardinals

The line hasn't moved much (Bengals -7.5), but the total has climbed from 51.5 to 53.5. Sharp money is on the over, expecting a shootout in a game with a good offense facing a terrible defense.

Bears at 49ers (SNF)

San Francisco opened at -3 and has ticked up to -3.5. The sharps slightly favor the Niners at home, but this one is staying relatively stable. Both teams are 11-4, and the market can't find a clear edge.

Seahawks at Panthers

Seattle opened at -6 and has moved to -7. Public money is on the Seahawks, pushing the line higher. If you're fading the public, you might look at Carolina +7, but laying seven on the road against a bad team isn't crazy either.

What the Movement Tells Us

The overall theme of Week 17 is this: fade the public favorites.

Sharp money has been on underdogs all week. The Jets, Eagles, and several other dogs have seen line movement in their direction. That doesn't mean they'll all cover, but it does mean the professionals see value on those sides.

The books know this. They're adjusting lines to balance their exposure. But the initial moves tell you where the sharp action landed first.

How to Use This Information

Line movement is just one data point. It tells you where the smart money went, but it doesn't guarantee outcomes. Sharps get it wrong plenty of times.

That said, when you see significant movement toward an underdog — especially one that should theoretically be a blowout victim — it's worth paying attention. The professionals have access to information and analytics that most retail bettors don't.

If you're on the fence about a game, check where the line moved. If it moved toward the team you like, that's a good sign. If it moved away, you might want to reconsider.

The Bottom Line

Week 17 sharp money favors the Eagles, the Jets, and several other underdogs. The Patriots' line movement is the most dramatic — 1.5 points toward a 3-win team is significant.

Will the sharps be right? We'll find out tonight. But if you're looking to bet with the smart money, the path is clear: fade the favorites and take the points.

Let's see if the pros know something we don't.