Scottie Scheffler at +230 to win a golf tournament should feel illegal. But here we are, watching the world No. 1 open as a massive favorite at the WM Phoenix Open, and honestly? It might still be too high.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Scheffler is +230 favorite at the Phoenix Open, nearly 10x shorter than second choice
• The damage: Next closest is Xander Schauffele at +2000
• Why you should care: Scheffler won this event in 2022 and 2023, and just dominated his 2026 debut
• The move: Value hunters look to Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) and Jordan Spieth (+5000)

The Scheffler Dominance

The gap between Scheffler and everyone else is absurd. He's +230. Xander Schauffele is the second choice at +2000. That's not a gap—that's a canyon.

And it's completely justified.

Scheffler just dominated The American Express in his 2026 season debut. He's now won four of his last seven starts dating back to the 2025 British Open. The guy is playing a different sport than everyone else on Tour.

At TPC Scottsdale specifically? He won in both 2022 and 2023. The course fits his eye, and the raucous 16th hole crowd doesn't faze him. If anything, he feeds off it.

The Phoenix Open Setup

This tournament marks the real beginning of the 2026 PGA Tour season. While not technically a signature event, it's one of the most recognizable tournaments on the calendar. That par-3 16th with stadium seating creates the most electric atmosphere in golf—and some of the most unpredictable swings.

The tournament runs Thursday through Sunday, with coverage on Golf Channel and CBS. Defending champion Thomas Detry won't be there after his move to LIV Golf, which removes one variable from the equation.

Value Plays Worth Considering

If you're not into laying -230 on anyone (understandable), here's where the value hunters are looking:

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800): Two-time Phoenix Open winner (2016, 2017). He's finished inside the top 30 every year since then except for one withdrawal. Coming in hot off a Hero World Challenge win in December, a T13 at the Sony Open, and a T11 at last week's Farmers Insurance Open.

Jordan Spieth (+5000): Brilliant record at TPC Scottsdale but has never won. Since 2015, he's racked up six top-10s including T-6th, T-6th, T-4th in the last three seasons. At +5000, you're betting on the breakthrough finally happening.

Sahith Theegala (+5500): Excellent course form with a solo fifth in 2024 and T3rd in 2022. He's yet to miss a cut at this tournament. Consistent finishes at good odds.

Rickie Fowler (+4000): The gallery favorite at the 16th hole, Fowler always brings energy to Phoenix. His game has been inconsistent, but the course and crowd suit him.

The Fade

One name the models are flagging: Si Woo Kim. Despite being one of the favorites, projections show him barely cracking the top 10. The Korean is talented but inconsistent, and his price doesn't reflect the volatility.

The Bottom Line

Betting Scheffler at +230 means you need him to win once every 4.3 attempts to break even. Given his recent form and course history, that's... actually reasonable? The guy is that good.

For degenerates who want more juice, the value plays in the +2800 to +5500 range offer better risk-reward. Matsuyama's course history and current form make him the most compelling alternative.

First round tees off Thursday. The 16th hole will be loud. And somewhere, Scheffler will be grinding while everyone else tries to catch him.