The NBA wants you gambling on Christmas. Five games. Star power everywhere. And one matchup that screams value if you've been paying attention all season.

New York hosts Cleveland at noon. The Knicks just won the NBA Cup. The Cavaliers are dead last in the league against the spread at 8-21. Sometimes the betting gods hand you a gift.

The Quick Hit

• Featured game: Knicks vs Cavaliers (12:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN)
• Spread: Knicks -5.5 (-105)
• Total: 235.5
• Knicks ATS: 18-11 (4th in NBA)
• Cavaliers ATS: 8-21 (dead last)
• Other games: Lakers-Mavs, Sixers-Celtics, Warriors-Lakers, Suns-Nuggets

The ATS Gap Is Massive

Cleveland being 8-21 against the spread isn't a small sample fluke at this point. They've covered in just 27.6% of their games. The Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five and 3-12 ATS when favored by 7 or more points.

The books keep setting Cleveland lines expecting them to win by comfortable margins, and they keep failing to deliver. Now they're 5.5-point underdogs against a surging Knicks team, and the value sits on the obvious side for once.

New York is 18-11 ATS — fourth best in the league. They cover. Cleveland doesn't. The math isn't complicated.

Star Power Matchup

Jalen Brunson is averaging 32.3 points and 6.8 assists over his last eight games on 51/41/83 splits. He just won Player of the Week. The Knicks won the NBA Cup and are playing with the confidence that comes from being the best team in crunch time.

Donovan Mitchell is having a career year with 30.6 points per game. But the Cavs as a team have fallen apart since late November. They've lost eight games since November 24th — as many as New York has lost all season.

The individual talent is close. The team performance isn't.

The Mobley Question

Evan Mobley has been out since December 13th with a Grade 1 calf strain. His status for Christmas is uncertain, and his absence looms large.

New York has leaned into double-big lineups with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. Without Mobley's defense and rim protection, Cleveland has less to throw at that configuration.

The Full Slate

Beyond Knicks-Cavs, the Christmas lineup includes:

• Lakers vs Mavericks (2:30 PM ET)
• 76ers vs Celtics (5:00 PM ET)
• Warriors vs Lakers (8:00 PM ET)
• Suns vs Nuggets (10:30 PM ET)

Each game has storylines. But Knicks-Cavs offers the clearest betting angle based on season-long ATS performance.

The Play

Knicks -5.5 is the spot. Cleveland's ATS record isn't noise — it's been consistent all season. Fading the Cavs has been profitable, and there's no reason to think Christmas changes the pattern.

The total at 235.5 is high. Both teams can score, but the number feels inflated by star power. If you're playing the total, consider the under.

The Bottom Line

Christmas Day basketball is a tradition. Having action on it makes it better. The Knicks are rolling, the Cavs can't cover, and the spread is sitting at 5.5. Take the home team, enjoy the games, and try not to check your phone too much during dinner.