The NBA doesn't take holidays, and neither do we. New Year's Day brings a five-game slate highlighted by the red-hot Detroit Pistons hosting the Miami Heat. At 25-8, Detroit has the best record in basketball, and they're laying 5 points at home against a Heat team trying to extend a three-game winning streak.

The Quick Hit

• Marquee matchup: Pistons (25-8) vs Heat (18-15), Detroit -5, O/U 239.5
• Other games: Nets-Rockets, 76ers-Mavs, Kings-Celtics, Jazz-Clippers
• Why you should care: Detroit is the story of the 2025-26 NBA season so far
• The move: Pistons at home laying 5 feels like the right number

Pistons vs Heat (7:00 PM ET)

Detroit continues to be the most surprising team in basketball. Cade Cunningham just dropped 27 points and 11 assists in a 128-106 demolition of the Lakers on Tuesday, and this Pistons squad shows no signs of slowing down.

The Heat come in having won three straight, but Miami is 18-15 and fighting for positioning in a competitive Eastern Conference. As 5.5-point underdogs, the Heat have value if you believe Detroit is due for regression.

But here's the thing—the Pistons are 19-6 when listed as favorites this season. They've earned the respect they're getting, and until they prove otherwise, betting against them at home feels risky.

The play: Pistons -5 at home. Cade is cooking, and Detroit's defense has been stifling.

Rockets vs Nets (6:00 PM ET)

Houston (20-10) hosts Brooklyn (10-20) as heavy 10.5-point favorites. The Rockets are rolling with a three-game winning streak, while the Nets are struggling through a lost season.

This spread feels huge, but Houston at home has been dominant. Brooklyn doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Rockets' young core.

The lean: Nets +10.5 has some value just because double-digit spreads in the NBA are tough to cover consistently.

Mavericks vs 76ers (8:30 PM ET)

Dallas (12-22) hosts Philadelphia (17-14) as 1-point home underdogs. The Mavs have won five straight at home despite their ugly overall record, and the Sixers have been maddeningly inconsistent.

This feels like a coin flip, which is exactly what the line suggests. Dallas at home has been respectable, and the crowd energy could push them over.

The lean: Mavs +1 at home with that five-game home winning streak.

Celtics vs Kings (10:00 PM ET)

Boston (20-12) travels to Sacramento (8-25) as 9-point favorites. The Kings have been a disaster, and the Celtics remain one of the best teams in the league despite some mid-season hiccups.

Sacramento's record is brutal, and there's no reason to expect them to hang with Boston. The Celtics should win comfortably.

The lean: Celtics -9 feels like the right side. Sacramento hasn't given us any reason to trust them.

Clippers vs Jazz (10:30 PM ET)

LA (11-21) hosts Utah (12-20) as massive 11.5-point favorites. The Clippers have won five straight despite their overall struggles, and the Jazz are in full tank mode.

When two bad teams play and one of them is on a winning streak, lean toward the hot hand. The Clippers are finding something at home.

The lean: Jazz +11.5 just because that spread is ridiculous for a matchup between two teams with losing records.

The Bottom Line

Detroit at home against Miami is the game of the day. The Pistons continue their remarkable season, and they should take care of business as 5-point favorites. The rest of the slate is tricky—take the points with Brooklyn and Utah if you're looking for underdog action, and consider Dallas at home getting a free point against an inconsistent Philly team. Happy New Year, degenerates. Let's start 2026 with some winners.