This is it. The single biggest gambling day of the year. Every degenerate in America has been pointing toward this Sunday, and the numbers are absolutely staggering. The American Gaming Association projects a record $1.76 billion in legal wagers on Super Bowl LX tonight—a 27% jump from last year. When you add international action, the global number approaches $4 billion. Four billion dollars riding on one football game. God bless this country.

The Quick Hit

• What happened: Record $1.76 billion projected in legal US wagers on Super Bowl LX
• The damage: Seahawks -4.5 (opened -3.5), total 45.5 (opened 46.5), Sam Darnold +115 MVP favorite
• Why you should care: 39 states plus DC have legal sports betting, and every one of them is printing money tonight
• The move: Whatever you're betting, bet it with conviction. No hedging on the biggest night of the year.

The Line Movement Story

The Seahawks opened -3.5 after the conference championships. Within days, sharp money hammered it to -4.5. It briefly touched -5.0 at some shops before settling back to -4.5, where it sits now on game day. That half-point dance from -3.5 to -5 and back to -4.5 tells you there's real disagreement between sharps on both sides.

The total has moved the other direction—opening at 46.5 and dropping to 45.5. Both defenses are elite, and the market is betting on a grind-it-out affair rather than a shootout. The most common score prediction among analysts: 27-17 Seahawks.

ESPN's panel went 82.8% Seahawks out of 58 experts polled. When that many talking heads agree on something, it usually means either they're all right or they're all about to look stupid on national television. No in-between.

The Sharp-Public Divide

We've been tracking the sharp money flowing toward a Patriots upset all week, and nothing has changed on game day. The ticket count is lopsided toward Seattle, but the handle split is tighter than it should be. Big bettors are on New England. Small bettors are on Seattle. The sportsbooks are somewhere in the middle, praying for a Seahawks win by exactly 4 points.

The biggest individual bets have landed on both sides. Mattress Mack's $2 million on the Patriots at +200 is the headline wager, but there's millions more on Seattle from bettors who think this line is too low, not too high.

Prediction Markets Are Exploding

Kalshi saw $161 million traded on the Super Bowl winner market alone—a 450% increase year over year. That's not sports betting in the traditional sense; that's a prediction market where people trade contracts like stocks. The fact that it's drawn $161 million in volume on a single binary outcome tells you how mainstream betting on everything has become. DraftKings and FanDuel built the highway. Kalshi is building a whole new lane.

The MVP Market

Sam Darnold is the +115 favorite for Super Bowl MVP, which makes sense if you think Seattle wins comfortably. Drake Maye sits at +240, and that number only pays if the Patriots pull the upset. There's almost no scenario where the losing QB wins MVP, so this market is essentially another way to bet the game outcome with a quarterback slant.

If you're feeling frisky, kicker and defensive player MVPs have paid out before. They're long shots, but this is the Super Bowl. You didn't come here to be responsible.

What $1.76 Billion Looks Like

To put this in perspective: legal sports betting didn't exist in most of the country five years ago. Now 39 states and DC have it, and the Super Bowl alone generates more handle than some states see in an entire month. The industry has moved from "should we legalize this?" to "holy shit, look at these numbers" faster than anyone predicted.

The Super Bowl is where casual bettors become degenerates for a night. Office pools, prop bet parties, first-time app downloads—tonight is the gateway drug for millions of Americans who will discover that betting on the coin flip is a perfectly acceptable life choice.

The Bottom Line

$1.76 billion. One game. Two teams. A nation of degenerates united by the shared delusion that they know something the market doesn't. Whether you're on the Seahawks -4.5, Patriots +4.5, the over, the under, Darnold MVP, Maye MVP, or just hammering the coin flip because you trust your gut on a 50/50—this is your night. No more research. No more second-guessing. Lock it in, pour a drink, and ride. See you on the other side.